*The monetary policy committee (Copom) of Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has lowered the country’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 14.0%. This marks Copom’s
fourth consecutive interest rate cut. Despite highlighting the continued uncertainty in the global economy, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, the committee released a statement describing the rate cut as
“consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target” of 3.0% +/-1.5. Brazil’s annual inflation slowed from 4.72% in May to 4.64%
in June, but many economists are expecting inflation to rise again later in the year and remain above the upper limit of the target range for the rest of 2026. The latest Copom projections show an annual inflation forecast of 5.1% for this year, while the latest forecasts by private sector economists and analysts consulted by the BCB suggest that Brazil’s annual inflation could close this year at 5.03%. The market analysts are also expecting only one more rate cut this year, with their latest forecasts indicating that the Selic rate could stand at 13.75% by year-end.
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