The Central American Bank for Economic Intergration (CABEI) is comparatively
bullish about the prospects for the Honduran economy in 2009, forecasting real
GDP growth of between 2.2% and 3.2% annually. In 2008 GDP growth was 3.4%,
according to the bank. The CABEI's optimism contrasts with gloomy forecasts from
the US State Department. It forecasts that the inflow of remittances (US$2.5bn
in 2008), the equivalent of about 20% of the country's GDP, will fall in 2009.
In 2007 remittances rose 31% annually, but last year the increase was a lower
10%. The State Department expressed concern about the prospects of a balance of
payments problem: noting that Honduras's central bank reserves barely cover
three months of import bills.
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