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Caribbean & Central America - February 2009 (ISSN 1741-4458)

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: HONDURAS

The Central American Bank for Economic Intergration (CABEI) is comparatively bullish about the prospects for the Honduran economy in 2009, forecasting real GDP growth of between 2.2% and 3.2% annually. In 2008 GDP growth was 3.4%, according to the bank. The CABEI's optimism contrasts with gloomy forecasts from the US State Department. It forecasts that the inflow of remittances (US$2.5bn in 2008), the equivalent of about 20% of the country's GDP, will fall in 2009. In 2007 remittances rose 31% annually, but last year the increase was a lower 10%. The State Department expressed concern about the prospects of a balance of payments problem: noting that Honduras's central bank reserves barely cover three months of import bills.

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