Lula
During President Lula’s Globo interview on 27 August, he was asked to comment on the influence peddling investigations in which his son, businessman Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, has been implicated. He was also questioned about the corruption allegations against his trusted ally, Senator Jaques Wagner, the former leader of the governing coalition in the senate, who has been implicated in the high-profile Banco Master fraud case [
WR-26-25].
Lula defended both his son and Wagner, saying that the accusations against them have not been proven. But he also reiterated that he would never intervene to protect his son or ally, insisting that nobody was above the law, that justice must be served, and that this would apply to Fábio Luís if he were found guilty of any wrongdoing.
However, Lula’s campaign team was reportedly concerned about a slip-up during the questions about the corruption probes. Lula said that he had never spoken to the businesswoman and lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger, who is an associate of Fábio Luís and has also been implicated in corruption probes. Authorities suspect that Luchsinger had acted as an intermediary between Lula’s son and key suspects in the corruption scandal that hit the national social security agency (INSS) [
WR-26-13].
Despite Lula’s denials, Luchsinger’s social media accounts contain several photos from 2022-2023 showing her and Lula smiling and standing side-by-side. Right-wing opposition figures seized upon this chance to claim that President Lula was lying and trying to cover up his ties to the controversial businesswoman.
Lula’s campaign team later released a statement insisting that Lula had no connections with Luchsinger and he is just a public figure who attends many events and has his photo taken with lots of people. “The existence of these [photos] does not mean [there is] a personal, professional, or political relationship,” the statement read.
Later on in the Globo interview, Lula was asked about Brazil’s fiscal situation and how he intends to address public debt. According to figures from the central bank (BCB), Brazil’s gross debt (DBGG) in July stood at R$10.9tn (US$2.1tn), equivalent to 82.5% of GDP.
However, instead of sharing the fiscal concerns expressed by markets and investors, Lula said that he was “not worried” about debt. He went on to suggest that boosting Brazil’s economic growth could help ease concerns about the debt.
Lula’s preference for boosting growth, and thereby tax revenue, rather than cutting spending as a way to balance the books, comes as the country’s economy is not expected to post high growth rates.
On 1 September the national statistics institute (Ibge) released the GDP growth figures for the second quarter of this year, which show a quarterly growth rate of 0.5%, a slowdown compared with the 1.1% quarterly growth posted in the first quarter. In year-on-year terms, Brazil’s GDP in the second quarter was up 2.0% compared with the same quarter last year, and the accumulated annual growth in the four quarters ending Q2 2026 was up 1.9% compared with the preceding four quarters.
Bolsonaro
On 28 August it was Bolsonaro’s turn to be grilled on Globo, and he was also asked about fiscal policy. He reiterated his calls to cut spending, downsize the state, and lower taxes. He was asked exactly where he would make cuts, but he ducked the question and went on to talk about how Brazil’s debt burden was being worsened by high interest rates.
Afterwards, Bolsonaro was asked how much he aims to lower Brazil’s public debt, and he responded not by giving a clear number but by praising the government of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023). Flávio Bolsonaro said that he would “cut ministries” and recalled that his father dissolved 20,000 committee roles, while claiming that Lula has presided over a bloating of the state’s bureaucracy by creating 22,000 new roles.
Bolsonaro was also questioned in the interview about his connections to Daniel Vorcaro, the central figure of the Banco Master scandal [
WR-26-20]. In May this year, the media revealed that Bolsonaro had requested money from Vorcaro to fund a biopic to celebrate the life and political career of his father.
Flávio Bolsonaro maintained that no contract had been signed with Daniel Vorcaro over the biopic of his father. He then sought to deflect attention from the allegations and suggest that there should be more scrutiny of President Lula’s inner circle.
Bolsonaro was then pressed about the insurrectionist actions of the Brazilian far-right and the coup plot for which his father was convicted last year [
WR-25-37]. Bolsonaro proceeded to repeat the far-right claims that his father was the victim of lawfare and persecution by his political enemies.
Later on, he was asked about the false claims he made in July this year in an attempt to undermine the credibility of Brazil’s electronic ballots [
WR-26-29]. Bolsonaro admitted that he had made mistakes in his comments but denied that he was trying to undermine the integrity of Brazil’s democratic processes and promised that he would respect the result of the election - in contrast to his father, who did not recognise Lula’s 2022 election victory.
Just weeks away from the election, opinion polls are showing that the presidential race is likely to be very tight. On 2 September polling firm Genial/Quaest showed that, in a projected run-off vote, Lula polled 42%, in a technical tie with Bolsonaro on 41% of voter intentions. In their efforts to win over undecided voters in the coming weeks, every television interview or public appearance will count.
GDP growth
Economic analysts surveyed by the BCB are not expecting Brazil’s annual growth to exceed 2.0% in the next few years. Their latest forecasts show a 1.92% growth projection for 2026, 1.50% for 2027, and 1.98% for 2028.
Pressure on De Moraes
On 1 September media reports revealed leaked messages obtained by the police which suggested that supreme court (STF) justice Alexandre de Moraes might have had close ties to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro.
The media has been reporting for months about indirect connections between the judge and Vorcaro, but the recent revelations indicate that they had been in contact over the past year, although it is unclear exactly how much help or advice De Moraes gave.
In a message allegedly sent by Vorcaro to De Moraes in mid-November, the banker asked whether he should flee the country. This was just days before Vorcaro was arrested on 17 November.
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