The régime, he said, 'will not affect capitals entering the productive system [...] The golondrina ['swallow'] capital which comes and goes through the markets taking advantage of the interest rates are not compatible with Argentina's economic model.'
He said these flows of 'speculative' capital were the greatest hindrance to his policy of maintaining a fairly high dollar rate (about Arg$3 per dollar) which will not fluctuate brusquely.
He also announced a parallel authorisation to companies to pay their dollar-denominated debts, in order to increase the demand for dollars.
According to Lavagna, over the past three months the inflow of 'speculative' capital has almost doubled, from US$550m a month to more than US$900m.
Argentines are hoarding US$35bn 'under the mattress', according to calculations made by the central bank at the end of last year of what it calls 'assets not accruing rent'. This is about three times the country's current international reserves (US$11.3bn) and equivalent to 25% of GDP. Clearly fed by the release of deposits frozen under the 'corralito' restrictions, the end-2002 total is up 25% on the end of the previous year (just after the imposition of withdrawal restrictions).
Argentines are also reckoned to be holding about US$100bn abroad. Both figures together roughly match the size of Argentina's external debt.
Economic activity in Argentina in the first quarter of the year was running 5.2% higher than in the comparable period last year. The government sees this as confirmation that the country is on track for 4% growth in the year as a whole (for further detail, see tables in main story).
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