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Andean Group - May 2010 (ISSN 1741-4466)

COLOMBIA: Photo finish expected in presidential election

While the latest polls in Colombia differ slightly on who will win most votes on 30 May, they all agree on one thing: Juan Manuel Santos of the ruling Partido de la U (PU) and Antanas Mockus of the Partido Verde (PV) will have to face-off in a second round run-off scheduled for 20 June as neither candidate would reach the 50% plus one mark needed to win in the first round.  There is also no consensus regarding who may win in June.  In the first round, the poll released by the Centro Nacional de Consultoria (CNC) on 20 May puts Santos ahead with 39% and Mockus second with 34%; conversely, the survey conducted by the Universidad de Medellí­n (Udem), released on 19 May, puts Mockus ahead with 37.4% against Santos' 32.9%.  When the margin of error is taken into account (1.8% in the first and 2.63% in the second) it is clear that it is a very tight race.

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