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Weekly Report - 4 January 2005

Tracking trends

CUBA | Growth despite handicaps. According to President Fidel Castro, the Cuban economy grew by 5% last year, overcoming the impact of two hurricanes and a power crisis (plus the additional handicaps of US restrictions on remittances by expatriates and oil production falling below target in year of high world oil prices). Export earnings grew by 32.5% to just over US$2bn, a level not seen since 1991. 

Tourism came in slightly over target, with the number of visitors growing by 7.6% to 2.05m and earnings rising by 15%. For this year the government has set a target of 2.3m visitors. There are high hopes on the oil front following the reported discovery of an offshore field in the Gulf of Mexico said to hold about 100m barrels. The field, run in partnership with the Canadian firm Sherritt, is expected to come onstream later this year.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | Growth above expectations. The Dominican economy grew by about 2% in 2004, reports central bank governor Héctor Valdez. The government had forecast 1.8%, while both the central bank and the IMF had projected 1%. Valdez noted that income per capita increased by 9%, to U$2,077.

GUATEMALA | Growth just ahead of forecasts. GDP grew last year by 2.7%, according to the central bank. This is slightly above the bank's own earlier forecast of 2.5% and more than half-a-point above the 2.1% rate recorded in 2003 - but the bank still describes the performance as 'weak' (not surprisingly, since Guatemala's population growth rate is 2.6%).

The bank predicts for this year a GDP growth rate of 3.2%. It also expects tax receipts to reach almost 10% of GDP, which keeps it among the lowest rates in the region.

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