The Ivamer Gallup poll, which was taken in early July, shows that 70% of Colombians approve of Uribe personally, while 64% approve of his government.
Uribe's tough line on the armed conflict is popular. Some 65% of those surveyed said they felt safer than a year ago, while 69% felt the military were now in a position to defeat the guerrillas.
The only area where Uribe has a could-do-better rating is the economy. Colombians are split (49% pro: 46% anti) on his economic performance.
This is odd since the economy is clearly picking up. The worry for the government must be that the equivocal support will mean that the referendum to lop government spending and tighten up fiscal policy generally, which is earmarked for October, will be a failure.
Fiscal problems. If the referendum does not support the government initiative to put public finances on a firmer basis, the economy will be in trouble. The government is already forecasting that it expects a revenue shortfall of Col$3.7tr (US$1.28bn) in 2004.
The worry is that the government is revising the figure upwards almost on a weekly basis, admittedly by only about US$150m a time. The IMF has set the government a fiscal deficit target of 2.1% of GDP. The government's original forecast for the deficit was about US$890m for 2004.
According to preliminary figures, in the first half of this year, the deficit stood at some Col$500bn beneath the IMF-agreed deficit limit, set at Col$3.24tn (US$1.13bn).
The finance minister said yesterday that Colombia would seek to raise US$1bn on the international debt markets to help cover next year's expected US$1.15bn shortfall.
The government is now pinning its hopes on the spending cuts envisaged in the referendum. The finance minister, Alberto Carrasquilla, has ruled out raising the level of income tax, introducing a new capital gains tax, or the issuance of compulsory bonds.
Furthermore, under pressure from the opposition, the government has dropped its plan to bring forward from 2005 to 2004 a two-point increase in value-added tax (VAT), and to extend the rate from 7% to 10% on various components of the basic food basket such as coffee, rice, and chocolate.
The VAT increase would have brought in Col$700bn and the 3% rise a further Col$500bn. The government has also dropped its plan to tax pensions.
Ratings. An international ratings agency, Standard & Poor's, raised its outlook on Colombia's sovereign ratings from negative to stable. S&P cited Colombia's improved fiscal performance, strong growth prospects, and its better security as reasons for the upgrade. S&P rates the country as BB, (two notches below investment grade).
Carrasquilla hinted that the government would cash in on the rating and raise US$1bn from the international debt markets to help cover next year's expected US$1.15bn deficit.
The real economy. There are growing signs that the economy is on the up: electricity consumption for the month of June was a record high and has risen by 3.2% over the past 12 months. The primary sector is also doing well: the amount of land used for agricultural production increased by 14% year-on-year in the first half of this year, to 621,778 hectares.
Inflation: In June, consumer prices fell by 0.05% month-on-month. This was the biggest fall since 1988. The drop, which was well below market forecasts for a rise of between 0.07% and 0.37%, was due largely to a bumper harvest, which brought food prices down by 1.06% from May's figure.
The slide in inflation is a vindication of the central bank's economic judgment. The bank has been running a loose policy, although it did raises rates by 1% in April. The inflation target for this year is 5.5%: inflation for January to June stood at 5.01% - down from 5.06% in the first five months of the year.
Forecasts: The central bank governor, Miguel Urrutia, expects the economy to grow by 3% this year; better than the 2% forecast by the government. Urrutia pointed out that exports were strong with robust rising sales to the US, Central America, and the Caribbean offsetting a slump in Venezuela.
Colombia ran a trade surplus of US$397.7m with the US in the first four months of this year, against a surplus of US$418.9m in the same period last year. It ran a trade deficit of US$33.9m with Venezuela.
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