The last year in which the country ran a trade surplus was 1990, when the surplus came in at US$350m. The most striking point about the trade account is that the improvement did not come about just because exports surged: there was also a pick-up in imports. The latest data shows that exports were up by 17% in the first 10 months of 2003. There may have been a slight dip in exports in the final couple of months of the year, but the consensus is that export revenues were between US$2bn and US$2.15bn in 2003. This is the highest figure since 2000.
The official figure for imports in 2003 was US$2.064bn. This was 11.5% up on the figure for 2002. More significant was that, in the second half of 2003, imports were up by 42% on the comparable period of 2002.
As local economists point out, the pick-up in imports is good news because it shows that the domestic economy is finally on the mend. Particularly encouraging was the fact that the biggest jump in imports in 2003 was in intermediate goods. This was largely because of a jump in imports of oil and other fuels: these doubled, compared with 2002, and came to US$460m in 2003. The jump was due partly to the higher international prices and partly to a (strange) decision by the state oil company to rebuild its stocks. There was also a pick-up in final demand for fuel.
Surprisingly, despite the general sense that the economy was now over the worst, there was no significant increase in imports of consumer goods. Economists say that this is due to the devaluation in 2002: imported foods and drinks, cars and white goods became expensive luxuries, which people are now doing without.
Imports of capital goods continued to fall in 2003 as companies cut back on investment. There is a feeling that investment will pick up this year, so imports of capital goods should follow.
The Instituto Nacional de Carnes reported that exports of beef, the country's biggest single export, were up by 23% in volume terms and by 39% in value terms in 2003. The value of the exports was US$375m; the volume was around 317,800t. The US, Canada and Mexico bought almost half the beef exported (154,941t). Mercosur was the next most important market, with 35,863t, followed by the EU, which bought 30,587t.
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