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Economy & Business - August 2005

What oil at US$70 a barrel means for the region

When oil broke through the US$70 a barrel mark on 30 August, the Mexican stockmarket fell by 2.2%. This reaction suggests that investors believe that the US economy cannot cope with high oil prices. This belief was subsequently franked by a couple of discouraging statistics from the US. First, the second-quarter GDP growth figure was revised downwards. Then, and more seriously, because the indicator is forward-looking, the Chicago purchasing-managers index recorded its biggest-ever fall. It came in at 49.2 for August, well down on the July rate of 63.5 and far below the 61 independent forecasters expected. On top of this there is the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the southern states of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.  

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