Weekly Report - 9 September 2003

CENTRAL AMERICA | Remittances tally refined. Expatriates from three Central American countries — El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras — may be remitting home about US$4.8bn a year. The figure is suggested by a field survey conducted for the IDB by the Costa Rican firm Borge y Asociados. Overall, 23% of the people interviewed reported receiving remittances; the highest rate was recorded in El Salvador (28%), the lowest in Honduras (16%). The estimated volume of remittances followed the same pattern: US$2.2bn to El Salvador, US$1.8bn to Guatemala, US$800m to Honduras. An interesting detail is that Honduran recipients appear to be sent more money than their Guatemalan peers (US$1,333 each versus US$1,200).

HONDURAS | Growth above 3% predicted. The Honduran economy will grow this year by 3% to 3.3%, says President Ricardo Maduro (in a letter he wrote to media chiefs, in case they missed the official central bank handouts). This, he underlined, would put it ahead of hitherto fast-growing neighbours like El Salvador and the Dominican Republic. Export earnings are expected to rise by 6%, to US$726m, and remittances by expatriates are expected to bring in US$1bn.

PANAMA | QII figures suggest stronger recovery. Panama's GDP grew by more than 2.4% in the second quarter, prompting the government to raise its growth forecast for the year to 2.8%. Last year the economy grew by a mere 0.8%. The only two sectors faring poorly were commerce and finance — the latter contracting by 1.3%.

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