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Weekly Report - 1 July 2003

VENEZUELA: New exchange control regime

Finance minister Tobí­as Nóbrega announced last week that he would unveil a new exchange-control system within days. The current régime, hobbled by bureaucracy, is blamed by businesses for keeping the economy in a deep recession. Nóbrega said that he would assert his authority over the Cadivi system, which has been placed under his ministry: previously it had been independent. 

Nóbrega said that the policy for the new system would be set jointly by the government and the central bank. He refused to say more about the likely changes, but it seems that the government will move towards a two-tier system. The current rate of Bs1,600 to the dollar will hold for interest payments, remittances and imports while there will be a freer rate for other transactions. The current (thin) blackmarket rate is anything from Bs2,200 to Bs2,700 to the dollar. 

Nóbrega claimed that disbursements under Cadivi had increased dramatically in the past few weeks. He claimed that Cadivi had now authorised US$900m in disbursements and paid out US$500m. A week earlier the figures had been US$700m and US$162m, respectively. He claimed that the system was now approving US$20m a day. 

Just before Nóbrega's announcement, central bank director Domingo Maza, who had consistently been in favour of exchange controls, stated that he was concerned about the effect of the controls on the money supply. As exchange controls prevent banks from using bolí­vares to buy dollars, the central bank has been buying bolí­vares off them with certificates of deposit. 

The central bank seems to have issued around Bs5.5tn (US$3.4bn) worth of CDs to stop this cash driving inflation even higher. Most of this paper is issued at interest rates of 20%. So another trillion bolí­vares will be added to the money supply. The bank says that it will get the government to meet this cost. 

Maza said that the bank realised that there were costs to the policy but there was no alternative.

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