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Weekly Report - 15 September 2011 (WR-11-37)

Guatemala heads into the unknown

Right-wing former general Otto Pérez Molina of the Partido Patriota (PP) will face populist businessman Manuel Baldizón of Libertad Democrática Renovada (Líder) in the 6 November run-off for the presidency. While this is in line with poll predictions, the big surprise on 11 September was the relatively poor performance by Pérez Molina, who had consistently led the polls by a country mile. This, together with the surge of Baldizón, who has most benefited from the exclusion of former First Lady Sandra Torres of the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE)-Gran Alianza Nacional (Gana), and the strong performance in the congressional and municipal vote by the UNE-Gana, which has rejected outright a future alliance with the PP, suggest that the second round is a far from foregone conclusion.

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