The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) came up in September with the data on Bolivian coca cultivation that was absent from its own World Drug Report published last June [SSR-11-07], let alone from the two ‘policy-shaping’ reports, released in March - the UN’s International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) and the International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) prepared by the US State Department [SSR-11-03]. The UNODC presents coca cultivation in Bolivia as ‘stable’, but its figures point to a more nuanced scenario.
The September report (Bolivia: Monitoreo de cultivo de coca 2010) claims that the 2010 results ‘show, for the second consecutive year, a net effective reduction of the area cultivated with coca.’ In tabular form the report shows the cultivated area as totalling 30,900 hectares in 2009 and 31,000 ha in 2010, and then indicates a variation of 0%, explaining in a footnote that the 2009 figure has been revised. The figure cited for 2009 is the same as in the UNODC’s 2009 coca cultivation monitoring report and in its World Drug Report 2011.
In the biggest coca-growing area, the Yungas of La Paz, cultivation is estimated to have fallen by 2% in 2010; in Chapare, the second-biggest, 4% growth is estimated; in the smallest, Apolo (in the north of La Paz department) growth is put at 33%.
The September text more accurately says that coca cultivation in Bolivia increased by 0.3% in 2010: ‘In the period 2006-10,’ it says, ‘the lowest [cultivation] growth rates were recorded in 2009 and 2010, with 1% and 0.3%.’ The slowdown has not been even across Bolivia.
The report includes a lengthy section on methodology that explains and illustrates the thoroughness with which satellite imagery is used and, where possible, checked with direct field observations to locate and measure coca plantations. It also states the actual areas surveyed by satellite (see table) in each of the coca-growing zones, which serves to highlight just how much of the final results are projections. In the Yungas 2,853ha were surveyed and total cultivation was estimated at 20,500ha; countrywide, the area surveyed amounts to little more than a third of the total cultivation estimate.
Estimated coca cultivation in Bolivia
Hectares
Region 2009 2010 Area surveyed in 2010*
Yungas de La Paz 20,900 20,500 2,853
Trópico de Cochabamba (Chapare) 9,700 10,100 7,740
Franz Tamayo (Apolo) 300 400 716
Total 30,900 31,000 11,309
Source: UNODC.
Supply reduction in Bolivia
Year Cultivation Eradication Seizures (tonnes)
(ha) (ha) Coca leaf Cocaine base Cocaine
2006 27,500 5,070 1,343 12.7 1.3
2007 28,900 6,269 1,706 14.9 2.9
2008 30,500 5,484 2,065 21.6 7.2
2009 30,900 6,341 1,575 22.0 4.9
2010 31,000 8,200 1,075 25.7 3.4
Source: UNODC.
The Bolivian government no longer speaks of coca eradication, but of ‘rationalisation’ based on consensus and social control — with one exception: in the national parks, where all coca plantations are considered illegal, eradication is the norm. In Chapare’s two national parks in 2010, coca cultivation expanded by 9% in Isiboro Sécure and 6% in Carrasco. Jointly they accounted for an estimated 2,228ha, or 22% of total cultivation in Chapare.
In 2010, 8,200ha of coca plantations were eradicated, 29% more than in 2009 and the greatest area since President Evo Morales came to office (but still well below the 15,353ha recorded in 1999). Seizures of coca leaf last year fell by just under a third to 1,075 tonnes (t); seizures of cocaine base rose by 17% to 25.7t (in the fourth consecutive year of increases), but seizures of cocaine fell by 31% to 3.4t (in the second consecutive year of declines from the peak of 7.2t recorded in 2008).
The price for coca leaf (using Chapare as the benchmark), which had declined from the peak of US$5.70 per kilo (/kg) in 2000 to US$3.2/kg in 2006, then rose again to reach US$5.8/kg in 2010. Given that supply, according to the UNODC estimates, has not actually fallen in the last four years (though it has been growing slowly), this appears to indicate a strong demand ‘pull’.
Taking into consideration the widely varying yields of coca plantations in different parts of Bolivia, the UNODC calculates that the total value of its coca leaf production is about US$310m. This, it notes, is equivalent to 1.7% of Bolivia’s GDP and 12% of agricultural GDP in 2010.
Andean ranking
The UNODC goes on to notes that Bolivia’s coca cultivation has risen from 19% of the Andean total in 2009 to 21%, compared with Colombia’s 38% and Peru’s 41%. This elevates Peru to the rank of leading coca grower, a development that had previously been predicted as a possibility if Colombian output continued to fall and Peru’s to rise.
Neither of the latter has happened. This ranking is based on taking the UNODC’s lowest estimate of Colombia’s coca cultivation in 2010, which does not take into consideration the refinement introduced in the latest World Drug Report, which adjusts the projection to take into consideration the small coca plots that had been proliferating.
If the adjusted figure is used, Colombia continues to head the league of Andean coca growers, with 40.2% of the total, followed by Peru with 39.7% and Bolivia with 20%. Worth keeping in mind is that, as in the case of Bolivia, there are leaps of faith in the estimates for Colombia and Peru [SSR-11-03; 07].
[Note: the tables accompanying this article draw on data from UNODC’s World Drug Report 2011 and the its coca cultivation monitoring reports for 2009 and 2010, but the presentation of the data is our own.]
