On 7 October, exactly a year before the re-scheduled 2012 presidential elections, a reanimated President Hugo Chávez did a four-hour stint on the state channel VTV, where he (re-)announced his bid to extend his term in office to 18 years. In between rapping with an urban music artist, the cancer-struck Chávez also re-launched the so-called Gran Polo Patriótico (GPP, Great Patriotic Pole), the broad alliance of left-wing political parties and civic groups he put together ahead of his first electoral bid in 1998.
The move suggests official concern that the opposition ‘pole’, the umbrella alliance Mesa de la Unidad (MUD), has made sufficient strides in its internal organisation and discipline to pose a genuine threat to the president. Chávez may also be aware that his ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) is slightly damaged goods on the ground, where, in the key urban areas in particular, it has developed a bit of a reputation for inefficiency, incompetence and corruption. Although polls indicate that Chávez retains a decent advantage, in order to secure victory in 2012 he needs to woo back disaffected supporters and that means broadening his appeal. Pollsters say a third of voters are undecided, with the other two thirds split evenly between the government and the opposition - an estimated 18m Venezuelans are eligible to vote in 2012.
On 26 September the MUD presented a manifesto entitled ‘Commitment and Invitation to a National Unity Government’. It was a clear appeal to the ‘undecideds’ or ‘ni-nis’ (neither-nors). The MUD stressed that it was more than a temporary electoral alliance, defining itself as “a far reaching political and social alliance in keeping with the depth of the problems affecting the country”. It committed to supporting “as one” the candidate elected in its scheduled 12 February 2012 internal primary contest and said it would forge a government of national unity from 2013. The document was signed by 44 opposition figures, including the nine candidates who have so far signed up for the primary.
Henrique Capriles Radonski, the state governor of Miranda and the favourite candidate to win the MUD nomination, officially launched his primary campaign with a promise “to govern for all Venezuelans”. Capriles, 39, is the most popular politician in the country on some polls, with an approval rating of up to 55%, higher than President Chávez’s rating. In a short 25-minute address on 1 October, Capriles declared it time for Venezuela “to begin a new cycle” and invited Venezuelans of all stripes to “hop on the bus of progress”. As the presumptive opposition candidate, Capriles is effectively running a general election campaign in the primary season, one commentator pointed out. With a non-confrontational approach and an inclusive and relentlessly upbeat message of hope and change, Capriles is deliberately positioning himself above Venezuela’s bitterly polarised politics, thereby hoping to win over the undecided voters that will decide the 2012 contest.
Empathy doesn’t mean victory
On 4 October a local polling firm, Datanálisis, reported that popular support for President Chávez was at 58.9% in September, up a sharp 10 percentage points since July’s 48.6%. Venezuelans are sympathetic towards Chávez’s battle with cancer; however, 58% of respondents were against the idea of his re-election in 2012. Just under 41% of respondents supported Capriles Radonski’s bid to become the opposition presidential candidate. Voting intentions for Chávez were at 40%, up from 31% in July.
Luis Vicente León, the director of Datanálisis, noted that the government had managed to turn the president’s illness into a positive. This is largely thanks to Chávez’s regular public statements, his characteristic use of fighting language and his relentlessly upbeat self-prognosis. Added to this, León noted, is an increase in the local money supply in recent months (thanks to soaring oil export prices), which has put more cash in people’s pockets and boosted consumption (see next page). The latest poll underlines the fact that the president’s personal bond with his supporters is so intense that no-one else could conceivably win the 2012 election for the ruling PSUV. León emphasised that the latest findings were transitory; it is too soon to tell if the bounce in the president’s popularity will last. Datanálisis surveyed 1,300 people nationally between 7 and 29 September. The error margin was 2.7%.
- Looking to Fidel for the all-clear
President Chávez heads to Cuba on 14 October for what he says are a final batch of “extensive” tests to confirm that he is in remission after two operations and four or five rounds of chemotherapy for an unspecified cancer of the pelvic region. The president has repeatedly stated that his treatment, directed by Cuban medics, successfully removed all malignant cells and that the cancer did not metastasize. Fidel Castro first gave Chávez the news of his cancer. Presumably, he will be on hand again to deliver the latest results.
