Development: On 12 October the national daily Prensa Libre published a poll showing former general Otto Pérez Molina, of the right-wing Partido Patriota (PP), on 55.8% to 44.2% for Manuel Baldizón, a populist businessman running for the Libertad Democrática Renovada (Líder), ahead of the 6 November presidential run-off.
Significance: The poll by a local company, Prodatos, is the first to be released since the 11 September first round and should be treated with caution - without fail, all polls prior to the September vote had overestimated (by some ten percentage points) Pérez Molina’s support.
Key points:
• In part the pollsters’ overestimation of support for the PP candidate, who beat Baldizón by 36.10%-22.68%, owed to uncertainty over the candidacies of both former First Lady Sandra Torres, of the ruling alliance Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza-Gran Alianza Nacional (UNE-Gana), and former evangelical pastor Harold Caballeros (Visión con Valores, Viva). Yet they traditionally over-estimate the urban population (the bastion of PP support). Again there are questions over their accuracy ahead of the second round given that, since 1985, voter turnout has decreased in the second round (dropping from 60% to 48% in 2007 for example), particularly in rural areas, which Baldizón, - who struck an 11-party alliance that includes the UNE-Gana alliance - is targeting with his promises of social programmes.
• Local commentators note that both candidates, who are due to participate in the first second-round presidential debate on 17 October, have changed their campaign messages in an attempt to broaden their appeal. Cynics cite this as evidence of the dearth of ideology underpinning the platforms. Pérez Molina, who based his campaign on a ‘mano dura’, repressive approach to crime, is now offering scholarships to students and support for the elderly. Baldizón, whose first round campaign pledges included bringing back public executions as a deterrent against crime and continuing the popular government cash transfer social programmes, has been incorporating pledges from the other members of his alliance such as that of boosting job creation, initially put forward by the Partido de Avanzada Nacional (PAN).
