Development: On 12 October the human rights ombudsman (PDH) released police figures showing a slight decline in Guatemala’s homicide rate.
Significance: Like its ‘Northern Triangle’ neighbours, El Salvador and Honduras, Guatemala is facing unprecedented security problems caused by the spread of international drug gangs and associated violence. Security is a chief electoral concern ahead of the 6 November presidential election run-off. The latest PDH figures suggest some progress by the outgoing government led by President Alvaro Colom. This goes unreported by the largely hostile local media, which continues to paint a situation of escalating violence. This selective media bias serves the purposes of the leading candidate in the run-off, the former general Otto Pérez Molina, of the right-wing Partido Patriota (PP). Molina has focused his campaign on a hardline, repressive response (‘mano dura’) to crime.
Key points:
- According to the PDH figures, there were 4,255 homicides in the first nine months of 2011, a 2.49% decline on the same period of 2010.
- Local non-governmental outfits including the Central American Business Intelligence (CABI) have flagged up the distorted reporting of the government’s security rate record, arguing that in fact the Colom administration has managed to oversee a significant downturn in the number of violent deaths. The official total number of homicides for 2010 - 5,968 – was down 7.5% on 2009. At the end of 2010, Guatemala's murder rate per 100,000 was 41.1 — high by any standards, but the lowest in Guatemala in six years. The rate peaked at 45.9 in 2009. In El Salvador and Honduras, the homicide rates were reported as 66.0 and 82.1 respectively for 2010.
- Some experts point out that while the total number of homicides might be on the decline, the actual crimes themselves are characterised by greater cruelty, such as beheadings and torture, which may point to inter-drug gang wars.
