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Weekly Report - 03 November 2011 (WR-11-44)
GUATEMALA: Could the weather have electoral implications?
With polls showing former General Otto Pérez Molina ahead [WR-11-42], a crucial factor in determining the 6 November presidential run-off with populist businessman, Manuel Baldizón - and the big imponderable – will be voter turnout. Pérez Molina is already likely to benefit from the traditional fall in rural participation in the second round, but his advantage could be extended by virtue of the recent rains which have devastated the country, further adding to the challenges of mobilising the rural vote. Meanwhile the split in the ruling centre-left Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE) – the main partner in the multi-party alliance backing Baldizón and his Libertad Democrática Renovada (Líder) – spells further problems ahead for Pérez Molina´s rival.
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