Chávez said Vice-President Elías Jaua, Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro, Interior and Justice Minister Tareck El Aissami and Defence Minister Carlos Mata Figueroa would all stand for election. Jaua will run for governor of Miranda, the second most populous state which Henrique Capriles Radonski, one of the favourites to win the presidential primary for the opposition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) next month, won in 2008. Maduro will run for governor of Carabobo, the fourth largest state, which is also in the hands of the MUD; El Aissami for governor of Táchira; and Mata for governor of Nueva Esparta.
This tactic is eminently risky. Emblematic Chavista politicians have not always fared well in elections: Diosdado Cabello (who Chávez recently appointed to shake up the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela [WR-11-50]) lost Miranda state to Capriles; Jesse Chacón was defeated in Sucre, a key municipality in the state. Chávez could be trying to demonstrate he is healthy enough to govern without his closest and most trusted acolytes by his side but his new ministers will have to find their feet quickly in key posts, especially the interior and justice minister.
The local NGO Observatorio Venezolano de Violencia (OVV) recently released an annual report in which it argued that 2011 was the most violent year in the country’s history, with an estimated 19,336 murders, a daily average of 53. It said insecurity had grown progressively worse under Chávez, with the number of murders climbing from 4,550 in 1998 when he came to power. It also denounced “complete impunity”, claiming that 91% of the murders committed did not even lead to arrests.
Inflation also remains a concern. It reached 27.6% in 2011, up by nearly one percentage point on 2010, the central bank revealed. Its president, Nelson Merentes, attributed the increase to the currency devaluation at the start of 2011 and rising international food prices (the government is tightening price controls this year [WR-11-47]). Neither insecurity nor inflation are new problems, and he has won election while facing both of them before, but Chávez enjoyed the confidence of the majority of Venezuelans in part because the opposition categorically did not enjoy this confidence. The MUD has learnt a lot from its defeats and Chávez, by his actions if not his disparaging words, clearly feels it will provide a much more formidable challenge this time around.
Worth noting: Cabello accused the opposition of “importing paramilitaries” to Venezuela after Leopoldo López, a presidential pre-candidate, held talks with former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010) on 17 December and Emilio Graterón, the opposition mayor of the Caracas municipality of Chacao, signed a security accord with Uribe’s team, announcing that two of his advisers, José Obdulio Gaviria and Alfredo Rangel, would visit to discuss strategies for combating kidnapping. Chávez threatened to imprison them if they came.
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