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Weekly Report - 05 January 2012 (WR-12-01)

COLOMBIA: Brothers in arms

Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos set the seal on a highly successful year in late December after a very cordial meeting with his Ecuadorean peer, Rafael Correa, in Quito. This was a veritable diplomatic triumph for Santos who, less than 18 months ago, would have faced an arrest warrant upon setting foot on Ecuadorean soil in connection with the 2008 bombing of a Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) camp in Angostura, in which the Farc’s ‘Raúl Reyes’ (Luis Edgar Devía Silva) was killed, when he was defence minister. Two days after Santos’ visit, five members of the Farc were arrested in Ecuador, and 200 kilos of explosives seized, in a joint military operation, which again would have been inconceivable until very recently.

In his New Year’s address Santos promised to continue fighting terrorism and narco-trafficking, as well as creating more jobs and reducing poverty. These might sound like empty promises in the mouths of other heads of state, but Santos can (and did) point to numerous successes in 2011. First and foremost, the armed forces struck down the leader of the Farc, Guillermo León Sáenz (‘Alfonso Cano’), which Santos implied could accelerate the rate of desertions (and by extension hasten the end of the country’s long-running armed conflict): Santos claimed that 1,600 Farc guerrillas had deserted in 2011, more than four a day.

Then there is the economy: unemployment fell to a single digit (9.2%) last year, and GDP growth reached an impressive 7.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, the highest quarterly growth in the last five years, according to the official statistics institute (Dane). Santos said the government would invest US$3.1bn in 2012 on transport infrastructure as a further spur to growth.

Santos visited Quito on 19 December. He struck up a good rapport with Correa, who incidentally steered Ecuador to similarly stellar growth figures in the third quarter (9% year-on-year). The two heads of state agreed upon a number of joint integration initiatives, including the construction of a third border bridge, across the Mataje River near the Pacific, to enhance development along the frontier, and the designation of flights between the two capitals as “domestic”, resulting in a significant reduction in taxes.

Santos clearly made a lasting impression. If he had tuned in to Correa’s weekly media broadcast several days later he would have been able to sit back and soak up the praise. Correa said relations were “perhaps at their best moment in recent decades”, describing the visit as “a wonderful Christmas present” for the people of both countries. In part, just like Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, this praise of Santos is deliberately extravagant in order to stigmatise his predecessor, Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010), but this is a boon for the Santos administration.

Petro takes office
Gustavo Petro was sworn in as mayor of Bogotá on 1 January, along with the other 1,100 mayors and 32 departmental governors who won election last October. Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla and national senator, is renowned for his honesty and transparency, attributes that were found wanting in the previous municipal administration. He will need to concentrate his attention on urban rather than national issues, however, if he is to retain support. As is his wont he immediately fuelled a debate by proposing a ban on the bearing of arms in Bogotá. Petro said that his priority, however, would be providing better services for the poorest of the capital’s 8m inhabitants. He said this would include the provision of basic drinking water for everyone, as well as meals for children under five suffering from malnutrition.

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