Piñera first met the nonagenarian Patricio Aylwin (1990-1994), for whom he has frequently expressed admiration, and then Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006). Lagos described the current binomial system of political representation, which perpetuates two coalitions by making it almost impossible for third parties to win congressional seats, as “a cancer” which must be extinguished.
These meetings took place in late December, but by far the most intriguing encounter occurred on 3 January when Michele Bachelet (2006-2010) consented to meet Piñera, despite being uncomfortable about criticism directed at her administration by some of his cabinet ministers. Bachelet is the most popular politician in Chile and a strong bet to seek re-election in 2014 so any political reform would carry personal relevance. She too called for the elimination of the binomial system, as well as “a genuine tax reform” to provide funds to finance education reform. Piñera is meeting the final member of the quartet, Eduardo Frei (1994-2000), who he defeated in the last elections, as we go to press.
Piñera thanked the former presidents for sharing their experience and wisdom. He dropped one hint that he might take their advice and reform the binomial system: “Democracy is a living entity, it must be constantly perfected, so that it is vital, young and legitimate.” His meetings came shortly after a biannual survey by the prestigious pollster Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP) gave him an approval rating of just 23%, down three percentage points on the previous poll six months earlier. His disapproval rating stood at 62%. Despite the fact that the economy is expected to grow by more than 6% this year, only 22% of the 1,559 respondents felt the Piñera administration was managing the economy well - the lowest figure since the CEP began its biannual reports in June 1991.
With such low approval ratings, Piñera could be tempted to heed the advice of his predecessors and push for a profound political reform. In the closing stages of 2011, his government won approval for congress for much smaller, but very significant, political reforms by establishing automatic voter registration and the voluntary vote: registered voters had faced a fine for failing to cast their ballots. Piñera said it would “rejuvenate, revitalise, and give new life to our democracy”, and appealed to the country’s youth to participate in politics. It will dramatically increase the size of the electoral register by adding an estimated 4.7m new voters in time for October’s municipal elections, assuming the constitutional court ratifies the law this month. Nearly 75% of these will be under the age of 30. Only 10% of the 8.1m voters currently registered are under the age of 30.
If Piñera decides to try and go one (big) step further and tackle the binomial system, he is likely to face fierce resistance from within his coalition, primarily from the ultra conservative Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI). Any reform will also be highly problematic in an electoral year – the Concertación, already keen to score cheap political points against an unpopular government, will be far more concerned to do so when election campaigning gets underway in the middle of the year for October’s municipal elections. These elections historically have acted more like plebiscites on the national government’s performance and will put one or other of the two main coalitions in pole position ahead of presidential elections in November 2013.
The ruling Coalición por el Cambio will not necessarily suffer the reverse that Piñera’s approval rating would suggest as the CEP poll makes it clear that the Concertación is equally unpopular. This reflects the high levels of frustration with the political class as a whole and the support Piñera would receive if he confronted the unrepresentative binomial system.
The government escaped 2011 without having to make any really substantial concessions to student protesters but the protests took their political toll – and not just to Piñera’s ratings. Piñera had to name a new education minister after Felipe Bulnes resigned in late December. Bulnes went the way of his predecessor Joaquín Lavín, who only took over the post in July after protesters had hounded out Piñera’s first education minister. Bulnes was replaced by Harald Beyer, an academic without political experience working at the CEP, who quickly showed himself to be a strong advocate of dialogue. The agriculture minister, José Antonio Galilea, also resigned. He was replaced by Luis Mayol, the president of the Sociedad Nacional de Agricultura (SNA).
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