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Weekly Report - 10 May 2012 (WR-12-18)

CHILE: Presidential aspirants limber up as Piñera limps on

He is only just over halfway through his term, but attention is already starting to move away from President Sebastián Piñera towards his possible successor. Piñera’s approval rating fell three percentage points to 26% in April, according to a monthly survey by the pollster Adimark. This is the lowest level since he took office in March 2010. In the same week as the president of Piñera’s party Renovación Nacional (RN) practically anointed the defence minister, Andrés Allamand, as its candidate for presidential elections in December next year, the Adimark poll showed Allamand and the public works minister, Laurence Golborne, as the most popular politicians in the cabinet. The presidential spokesman, Andrés Chadwick, desperate to avert a shift in focus to next year’s elections already, urged the ministers not to be distracted from the task in hand by future aspirations.

Piñera’s previous lowest approval rating was 27% last August in the midst of the student protests demanding that the state fund free education. Those protests are recommencing. University students and secondary school pupils confirmed on 6 May that they would stage demonstrations in Valparaíso, where the Chilean congress is located, between 16 and 21 May. This culminates on the day Piñera is scheduled to deliver his annual state-of-the-nation speech to congress. The day before last year’s address, 40,000 demonstrators turned out on the streets of Santiago to protest against the construction of the massive hydroelectric project, HidroAysén, in Chilean Patagonia. That set the stage for a series of damaging protests, principally by students, that have put Piñera on the back foot ever since.

The president of the Federación de Estudiantes de Chile (Fech), Gabriel Boric, said the students were all united in their demand for “radically transforming the educational structure in Chile”. Boric said that Piñera’s tax reform proposal, which has gone before congress and if approved could raise an additional US$1bn a year in extra funding for education, was totally insufficient. He also criticised it for lowering taxes for the wealthiest. The Right, meanwhile, accuse Piñera of pandering to protesters, offering concessions which will encourage more protests while discouraging the investment Chile needs to drive the economy in adverse external conditions: the reform package would raise the corporate tax rate to 20% from 17%.

Beyond Piñera
The most popular politician in the government remains Laurence Golborne, who masterminded the rescue of the 33 miners in northern Chile in October 2010. He had a 75% approval rating in the Adimark poll. He is followed by Allamand, and the current economy and tourism minister, Pablo Longueira. The president of the RN, Carlos Larraín, marked the 25th anniversary of the party’s formation, with a speech this week in which he virtually endorsed Allamand’s candidacy.

Michelle Bachelet stood down as defence minister before the municipal elections in October the year before she went on to run for the presidency in December 2005. Allamand has said he will remain in his post for the rest of this year rather than leave before October’s municipals, but this is an unwelcome distraction for Piñera, whose spokesman Chadwick was quick to urge all presidential aspirants to refrain from making any kind of official proclamation about their candidacies. It would be a real concern for Piñera if his most competent and popular ministers were to leave the cabinet in the coming months to pursue their ambitions.

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