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Weekly Report - 10 May 2012 (WR-12-18)

MEXICO: Quadri and the Playboy bunny steal show

The most memorable aspects of the first of two televised presidential debates on 6 May were the performance of the one candidate who has no chance of winning the election on 1 July, Gabriel Quadri de la Torre, and the brief cameo of a scantily clad former Playboy model. In that respect the debate marked a clear triumph for Enrique Peña Nieto of the main opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). This was never a forum in which he was expected to excel but with the scale of the lead he has amassed in the opinion polls he could afford merely to remain on the defensive as the onus was on his rivals to attack him. This they did - but they failed to land any really meaningful punches.

The bespectacled and mustachioed Quadri, who lies a distant fourth in the opinion polls, was the most eloquent speaker in the debate. He chided the others for mudslinging (mud that was not thrown in his direction, it should be noted, as his rivals did not acknowledge his existence). His message chimed with viewers as he accused his three rivals - Peña Nieto, Josefina Vázquez Mota, of the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist opposition coalition led by the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) – of being quintessentially traditional politicians, far more concerned about power than governing in the interests of ordinary Mexicans.

Quadri’s straight-talking style appealed to young and “progressive” voters. His number of followers on social networking sites Facebook and Twitter exploded by 1000% after the debate. Ironically, however, he represents someone vehemently opposed to the sort of reform Mexico urgently requires for its education system to compete more effectively with the developed world. Quadri is standing for the small Partido Nueva Alianza, an organisation strongly linked to Elba Esther Gordillo, the influential leader of the teachers’ union Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (SNTE): Monica Arriola Gordillo, her daughter, is the secretary general of the party, which after Quadri’s performance should win the 2% of the vote required to preserve its status.

The other talking point after the debate was Julia Orayen, an Argentine model who appeared for just 24 seconds to hand out envelopes to the candidates outlining when they were due to speak but whose revealing outfit spawned more column inches than the content of the debate. The Mexican daily Excelsior went as far as to declare her the winner of the debate. The electoral authority Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) rushed out an embarrassed statement apologising to “the Mexican people and the presidential candidates” for any offense caused by the garment and offering the bizarre explanation that Orayen had been selected for the job because of her short stature.

As far as the debate itself went none of the principal three candidates said anything new but Peña Nieto demonstrated that he can “string more than three words together” – a charge levelled at him by López Obrador. Indeed, he fenced competently as both López Obrador and Vázquez Mota sought an exposed flank. Both of his rivals devoted far more of their time to attacking Peña Nieto than they did to presenting their own proposals for government. They were clearly intent on showing the significant number of undecided voters, who hold the key to their chances, that Peña Nieto is just a pretty face without the intellectual credentials to govern the country. In spite of a number of public gaffes in recent months, however, Peña Nieto neither stumbled nor failed to express himself clearly.

In a slightly desperate attack, López Obrador held up a photo of Peña Nieto standing next to his uncle Arturo Montiel, a former governor of the Estado de México, who was accused of massive corruption but acquitted in 2006 despite strong evidence against him. López Obrador implied that Peña Nieto was the scion of a dynasty which embodied the corruption that characterised the PRI federal administrations for 71 years until the party lost power in 2000. López Obrador also came armed with documents he claimed proved that in his first year as governor of the Estado de México (2005), Peña Nieto had handed M$600m (US$45m) to buy airtime from Mexico’s largest and most powerful media group Televisa (he married Televisa soap star Angelica Rivera in 2010), and enjoyed media “protection”. Peña Nieto batted away the accusation on the grounds that it was nothing but unsubstantiated media speculation.

Vázquez Mota appeared to have the same scriptwriter as López Obrador. She also accused Peña Nieto of corruption and of representing the old guard of the PRI. Despite devoting comparatively little time to her own proposals, Vázquez Mota won the post-debate survey by the national daily Reforma of 12,000 subscribers, and the papers ‘experts’ put her second behind Quadri and ahead of López Obrador and Peña Nieto for her performance. One opinion piece in Reforma argued that López Obrador was the biggest disappointment, having “the speed of a pachyderm but not its weight”. Another contended that, “If the most memorable thing about the debate was the dress, it is unlikely to change the course of the election or make much impact on the polls.”

A poll published the day after the debate for the national daily El Universal showed Peña Nieto retaining a large part of his lead, on 36.3%, followed by López Obrador on 23.4% and Vázquez Mota on 22%. The second debate will be staged on 10 June.

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