When a crossword writer is hauled in by the intelligence service for allegedly concealing details of an assassination plot to destabilise the government, it gives a strong indication of that country’s prevailing political climate. This is the Venezuela of today; with President Hugo Chávez absent for long periods in Cuba undergoing life-or-death medical treatment and elections looming on the horizon, political tension and uncertainty has penetrated to the heart of the Bolivarian Revolution and threats seem to lurk in every corner.
The crossword in question was published in the national daily Últimas Noticias on 9 May. It was created by veteran crossword writer Neptalí Segovia. A television presenter, Miguel Ángel Pérez Pirela, on the official news channel VTV reported that “a group of specialists” had discovered a cryptic message within the crossword giving instructions to kill the President’s brother Adán Chávez, the governor of the western state of Barinas. The presenter said that Charles de Gaulle had sent such messages via crosswords from the French resistance to London during World War II. “They have to take this seriously and not just claim it is paranoia,” the presenter said, pointing out that the crossword contained the words “Adán”, “kill”, “firing” and “flat plains” (Barinas is located in Venezuela’s llanuras) though he never speculated on for whom these instructions were meant (see overleaf).
The most remarkable thing about the claim is the lengths to which the government is prepared to go - employing mathematicians and psychologists to assist the Bolivarian intelligence service (Sebin) to trawl through the papers - in order to unearth a destabilisation plot. It begs the question what else is the Sebin doing? Whether the plot is genuine or not is largely immaterial. It serves the government’s purposes either way.
With so much uncertainty surrounding the future of the Bolivarian Revolution given the precarious state of health of its talisman, and so much riding on the electoral outcome in October for a host of civilian and military officials upon whom Chávez has bestowed his favour, those enjoying the fruits of power feel threatened. Adding to the climate of political uncertainty and insecurity by accusing the opposition coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) of plotting to overthrow the Revolution at this delicate juncture not only aims to discredit the MUD as a destabilising force but could also be used to justify a decision by the government in the near future to take emergency measures (potentially unconstitutional) to counter this threat, such as the cancellation of October’s elections. This decision could be taken by the newly created council of state in the event of Chávez losing his battle against cancer in the run-up to elections.
The MUD denounced the crossword episode as “bordering on the ridiculous” and designed to distract public opinion from the country’s real problems. It also questioned the use of state resources to combat illusory threats rather than the very real threats posed by drug-trafficking and organised crime. The government’s credibility is far from unimpeachable: shortly after shots were fired at the entourage of the MUD presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski during a visit to the Caracas parish of Cotiza on 4 March, the government claimed the Sebin had uncovered a plot to assassinate Capriles by members of the opposition; no details of this plot have ever been provided [WR-12-12].
President Chávez has been highly successful in the past at stoking residual distrust of the opposition. Convincing the public of the sincerity of his intentions, when, for instance, he promises to maintain the social programmes introduced by Chávez (but to depoliticise and improve them), is a big challenge for Capriles. Perhaps an even bigger challenge, however, is gaining any kind of attention for his campaign amid the rarefied political atmosphere in Venezuela right now. So far opinion polls (which admittedly often need to be treated with considerable caution in Venezuela) suggest he has failed to meet the first of these challenges; media coverage suggests he has not really found an answer for the second challenge either.
Given the target of the alleged plot, it was interesting that Capriles should have been in Barinas as part of his pre-electoral campaign last week. “Barinas tops the poverty table in Venezuela,” he said. The remark was carefully chosen. Barinas is the native state of President Chávez. The clear implication was that, if after 14 years in power Chávez had not even managed to improve the prospects of his home state (now governed by brother Adán) then what did that say for the rest of the country. It was an audacious visit, right into the enemy heartland. Opposition candidates in the past have given up Barinas as a lost cause and concentrated on winning more populous, less “red”, states. Capriles promised more jobs and an end to the “failed” policy of expropriation which he said was drying up investment and employment opportunities.
“Venezuela needs a full-time president,” Capriles said while visiting the safe opposition-controlled western state of Zulia days later. The opposition argues that the government is operating on the margins of the constitution, at best, by refusing to provide accurate information on the state of health of Chávez. It has called for the supreme tribunal of justice (TSJ) to designate a medical team, made up of five specialists, to evaluate the real state of health of Chávez and to see if he is fit to govern. It is very difficult to see any judge on the TSJ having the temerity to back this proposal.
Meanwhile, Vice-President Elías Jaua argues that those discussing a political transition are, contrary to appearances, not pragmatists but rather intent on operating outside of the constitution. The opposition says that Jaua should assume the reins of power in the absence of Chávez, something he has repeatedly ruled out as unnecessary. The opposition does so in the safe knowledge that neither Jaua nor any other figure in the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) has anything like the popular support of Chávez and would in all likelihood lose the elections to Capriles.
- Sport nationalism
Both the government and the opposition scrapped for pole position at the weekend to heap praise on Pastor Maldonado, who became the first Venezuelan ever to win a Formula One Grand Prix, with victory in Spain. In an eruption of activity on the social networking site Twitter, the foreign minister, Nicolás Maduro, anointed Maldonado a “son of Bolivarianism”. President Chávez tweeted: “Our Pastro Maldonado won, making history”. The opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles tweeted: “Congratulations for Pastor… and for all our Venezuela. Long live Venezuela!”
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