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Weekly Report - 19 July 2012 (WR-12-28)

VENEZUELA: Fighting for control of the barracks

President Hugo Chávez was “compelled by circumstances” to speak out this week in order to “unmask” the man who “says he is going to be commander-in-chief”. Chávez was responding to a message from Henrique Capriles Radonski, the presidential candidate for the opposition coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD), directed at the armed forces, which was aired on private television stations on 12 July.

President Chávez does not often appear rattled. His speech at the Fuerte Tiuna military academy in Caracas on 14 July, however, indicated that he might not be quite as confident as a freshly released opinion survey by national pollster Datánalisis suggested he should be: the poll showed Chávez with a comfortable 15-percentage point lead over Capriles (46% to 31%).

Capriles delivered his short televised message on 12 July promising that as commander-in-chief he would approve a new social security system, including family cover, for members of the armed forces. “Behind every one of our military, there is a family that has been waiting for a long time for life to improve,” Capriles said. He argued that Chávez had raised expectations in the armed forces, but after 14 years these had not been met.

Capriles and his campaign team later produced a document purportedly drawn up by the defence ministry banning “expressly and absolutely” military and civil members of the armed forces from watching “any television programme” in which Capriles appeared. Capriles added: “My proposals are employment, security, housing, health, education and opportunities; the government has three proposals - threats, fear and division.” Chávez claimed the document was a forgery. It is not clear who is telling the truth but even if the document is genuine it was probably a mistake by Capriles to produce it as it has allowed the government to distract attention from the import of his message.

Teodoro Petkoff, editor of the Caracas weekly Tal Cual and a fierce critic of Chávez, opined that Chávez, who habitually addresses the armed forces as if they are a closed shop, found it unpalatable that his opponent had even mooted the possibility of becoming commander-in-chief. Petkoff might be naturally inclined to suspect the worst of Chávez, but a number of his remarks at the academy lend credence to Petkoff’s argument. “They hate my (our italics) armed forces so much,” Chávez argued, while calling for his adversary to show “respect” for the armed forces which he called “Bolivarian, revolutionary, Socialist and Chavista”.

Chávez went on to maintain that, “Not one single soldier would ever be swayed by the bastard interests of the unpatriotic bourgeoisie (used here as a catch-all synonym for anyone who is not Chavista) we have here… or stain the glorious uniform of the Liberator’s army”. He said there was “a strategy to attack our armed forces,” adding that “If the Right comes to power there will be a witch hunt”, rooting out Chavista loyalists.

Chávez, it should be noted, has done a good job of rooting out those suspected of not being Chavista loyalists, and promoting those showing unswerving fealty. General-in-Chief Henry Rangel, for instance, became defence minister soon after his much-publicised statement in 2010 that “a hypothetical opposition government would sell the country, and the armed forces are not going to accept that”. Capriles would be sorely tempted to depoliticise the armed forces if he won power, as he suggested in his televised message, spelling the end of the road for Rangel et al.

Chávez is probably most concerned that Capriles’ social security proposal could sway the rank-and-file. Rangel’s unconditional loyalty is shared by the top brass, who have benefited most from Chavismo, such as the two men promoted by Chávez while at the academy: strategic operational commander, Wilmer Omar Barrientos Fernández, and army commander, Carlos Antonio Acalá Cordones. Chávez spoke of his commitment to the armed forces, flagging up his most recent purchases of new T72 tanks from Russia and US$500m on modernising navy equipment. The average soldier might prefer a better pension, however, than some of the expensive toys Chávez buys.

  • Campaigning

President Chávez violated the electoral law 217 times in the first week of the campaign while Henrique Capriles broke it on no fewer than 165 occasions, according to a study by Venezuela’s Universidad Andrés Bello (UCAB) released this week. UCAB said that the transgressions by Chávez consisted of insulting and discrediting his opponent; using state funds to promote his candidacy; using public buildings for propaganda; and using public officials in campaign activities. Capriles was guilty of campaigning before the formal launch of the campaign period; making offensive remarks; and using national emblems. UCAB also criticised the national electoral council (CNE) for failing to fulfil its constitutional duty to observe and denounce violations of the law.

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