Ecuador’s private sector is putting pressure on President Rafael Correa to make a concerted effort to improve trade relations with the US for fear that his decision to grant diplomatic asylum to Julian Assange, the founder of the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks, will have negative repercussions. Specifically, the private sector is fretting that the US will terminate Ecuador’s trade privileges under the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (Atpdea).
The Correa administration granted diplomatic asylum (on 16 August) to Julian Assange, who had sought refuge in the Ecuadorean embassy in London on 19 June, after losing his legal battle to avoid extradition to Sweden to face an investigation into allegations of sexual assault. Ecuador’s foreign minister, Ricardo Patiño, read a long statement justifying the decision. He argued that “Ecuador believes that he [Assange] may become a victim of political persecution, as a result of his dedicated defence of freedom of expression… as well as his repudiation of the abuses of power in certain countries.”
Patiño argued that there was “strong evidence of retaliation by the country or countries that produced the information disclosed by Mr. Assange… that may endanger his safety, integrity, and even his life”. In case there were any doubts as to which “country or countries” Patiño might be referring, he grew more specific. He went on to impugn the US justice system by arguing that “legal evidence clearly shows that, given an extradition to the United States of America, it would be unlikely for Mr. Assange to receive a fair trial, and likely that he would be judged by special or military courts, where there is a high probability of suffering cruel and degrading treatment, and be sentenced to life imprisonment or capital punishment, which would violate his human rights”. He added that from “public statements and diplomatic communications by officials from Britain, Sweden and the USA, it is inferred that these governments would not respect international conventions and treaties…”
On 22 August the Washington Post ran an editorial contending that Correa was taking a big gamble on Assange that could backfire: “Mr. Correa — who has cracked down on press freedoms in his own country — has begun to show signs of establishing the same sort of autocracy that Hugo Chavez [sic] has brought to Venezuela”, the editorial argued. “He may imagine that protecting Mr. Assange will give a much-needed boost to his international reputation. But it also could have disastrous economic consequences for his country. As we’ve said before, the United States that Mr. Correa so despises allows Ecuador to export many goods duty-free, supports roughly 400,000 jobs in a country of 14 million people and accounts for one-third of Ecuador’s foreign sales. Congress could easily decide to diminish that privileged commercial access early next year. Is Mr. Assange really worth the risk?”
‘Definitely not’ was the resounding response from Ecuador’s private sector. In a meeting with President Correa and his cabinet ministers and some 150 businessmen shortly after the publication of this editorial, Pablo Dávila, the president of the umbrella business association Comité Empresarial Ecuatoriano (CEE), expressed his concern that “recent events that we have been through, particularly the asylum granted to Julian Assange, show without doubt that there is going to be an impact on trade ties.” He called for the adoption of a “strategy reaching out to that [the US] market”.
Correa shot back that “if national sovereignty is at stake, we will leave the negotiation table”. He added: “In February [17th] we will have new elections; if I stand for re-election let me make it clear, I will never accept any form of blackmail... Let them keep their Atpdea, we will give them a few million for a course in ethics and human rights.”
Correa said it would be an absurd contradiction if the US Congress refused to extend trade preferences because of the asylum granted to Assange. Ecuador alone enjoys Atpdea privileges now, as both Colombia and Peru have Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with the US and Bolivia was suspended from the agreement back in 2008 after a diplomatic rift with the US. The Atpdea preferences are due to expire in July 2013 and there is absolutely no chance, unless Correa somehow contrives to lose next February’s elections, that Ecuador would pursue an FTA of its own with the US.
In the past, Correa has repeatedly stressed that he “will not beg” the US for an extension of Atpdea. He argues that Atpdea is not a gift from the US, but the corollary of a contract under which the Andean countries stepped up their fight against the drug trade in their territories.
Broccoli: a brief case study
A number of key export products, such as cut flowers and vacuum-packed tuna, benefit from Atpdea. Other exports are highly dependent on Atpdea. It is worth focusing on just one of these, for instance broccoli, to demonstrate the extent of the repercussions on Ecuador should Atpdea not be extended.
Currently, 97% of Ecuador’s broccoli production is exported, of which one-third goes to the US in frozen form. Ecuador’s annual broccoli exports to the US are in the region of US$20m. This is a substantial sum as the producers of the crop are almost all monoculturists. The production and processing of broccoli provides employment for more than 12,000 people in the indigenous central Sierra provinces of Cotopaxi, Pichincha, Imbabura, Carchi and Chimborazo.
The association of Ecuadorean producers of fruit and vegetables (Aprofel) calculates that if the 0% tariff enjoyed under Atpdea prevails, then broccoli exports to the US will continue to grow at their current rate of 15% a year to reach US$40m within the next five years. On the other hand, Aprofel calculates that if broccoli exports were suddenly subjected to an import tariff of 15%, exports to the US would fall by nearly 30% a year, leading to the loss of more than 1,000 jobs a year.
The US would probably increase imports from Mexico, which is a big producer, and also (rubbing salt into the wounds of local producers) Colombia, whose producers are benefitting from the newly signed FTA with the US and are no longer subjected to the anxiety surrounding the periodic Atpdea renewal debate.
Off to Washington
A commission comprising representatives of the Ecuadorean-American Chamber of Commerce will travel to Washington in October to meet members of congress opposed to the extension of Atpdea. The comments made by Foreign Minister Patiño about the US justice system while granting Assange asylum are not likely to predispose congressmen to extending the Atpdea preferences.
This is particularly true when the prevailing perception in the US Congress is that the Correa administration’s entire foreign policy stance is almost tailor-made to aggravate the US, while providing Ecuador with little of real worth other than the knowledge that it enjoys full and unfettered national sovereignty to chart its own diplomatic course - Correa’s decision to invite Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad onto the balcony of the Carondelet presidential palace last January, and more recently Ecuador’s decision in late May to abstain from a UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution condemning the Syrian government over the massacre of civilians in Houla, stand out.
- Freedom of expression
“When the emblem of freedom of expression par excellence, Julian Assange, asks for asylum in this country… [it] is the best response to so much false propaganda that we restrict freedom of expression”, President Correa said. By defending Assange, Correa can also wave aloft an anti-imperialist banner, portraying himself as a genuine leftist. No serious rival has emerged to challenge him in the February presidential election, but the main political threat unquestionably comes from former allies who argue that he has deserted his left-wing roots.
- Belarus
Intriguingly, days after Ecuador granted asylum to Julian Assange, a judge on the national court of justice rejected an extradition request from Belarus for a former police investigator who had been jailed since June. Aliaksandr Barankov, much like Assange, had argued that he could be killed if he were sent back to Belarus. The case was being touted as a sign of the Ecuadorean government’s consistency on human rights given that President Correa has established close ties with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has earned the sobriquet ‘Europe’s last dictator’.
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