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Weekly Report - 2 December 2003

Tracking trends...

COLOMBIA | Growth rate inches upward. By end-September the Colombian economy was running 3.31% higher than in the comparable period of 2002, lifted by the 3.97% year-on-year expansion recorded in the third quarter. The latter figure, as President Alvaro Uribe has been repeating, includes the government's guesstimate of the contribution made by drug crops, which, as a result of the massive eradication drive, is reckoned to have depressed total agricultural output. `If drugs hadn't been included,' says Uribe, `[the QIII rate] would be 4% or more.'

The greatest y-o-y improvement in the third quarter was recorded in the extractive sector: 21.5%, largely due to coal. Other well-above-average rates were recorded in construction (9.65%) and financial services (6%). Agriculture was up by 4.24%, manufacturing by 3.4%.

COLOMBIA | Slow improvement on jobs front. Open unemployment in Colombia was 13.6% in October, a smidgen down from the 13.9% recorded in September. The rates for the country's biggest 13 cities, home to 48% of the population, were 15.4% and 16.1% respectively. Underemployment in October was 32.8% countrywide, 33% in the main cities. While these overall figures are not all that impressive, the breakdown of the change that has taken place over the year to October is encouraging: the number of people in work increased by 900,000 at the same time as the number of unemployed shrank by 120,000.

VENEZUELA | Big reduction claimed in unemployment rate. According to President Hugo Chávez , open unemployment in Venezuela had come down to 16.7% at the end of October, after having peaked at 20.7% as a result of the opposition's two-month strike-lockout. This takes the rate back to where it was a year ago, he noted. The improvement has taken place against the backdrop of a 14.7% contraction of the economy in January-September. The latest official figure to be published put the unemployment rate at 17.8% at the end of August.

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