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Weekly Report - 2 December 2003

Tracking trends...

PANAMA | Improved growth outlook. This week the economy ministry is expected to announce that GDP growth in the third quarter reached 4.1%, and that it is consequently raising its projection for the year as a whole from 2.8% to 4.3%. This outlook is not shared by all. The specialised publication Latin Source puts QIII growth at 3.2%; the Cámara de Comercio and the consulting firm Arden & Price say the rate for the year will be only 2.7%. Cámara de Comercio president Raúl Delvalle notes that growth rates of 3-4% are insufficient to bring down unemployment.

The commerce & industry ministry's investment promotion unit is predicting that foreign investment this year could well exceed US$1bn — after figures for the first half showed a total of US$565m, almost 10 times the level recorded in the same period of 2002. Just under half of the January-June figure was reinvestment by firms operating in the country; the overall increase was largely due to improved performance by general-licence banks, which are classed as foreign investment.

EL SALVADOR | Remittances partly cover trade gap. Salvadorean exports earnings in the first 10 months of the year were up 5.7%, to US$2.64bn, but imports grew more than twice as fast, by 12% to US$4.82bn. This left a deficit of US$2.18bn, which was 78% covered by the remittances made by expatriates, that totalled US$1.72bn. If remittances continue to grow at the 5.7% rate registered up to end-October, they will surpass US$3.2bn this year; if the trade deficit continues to grow at just over 20%, it will reach US$2.6bn by year-end.

JAMAICA | Bauxite-alumina sector perking up. Total bauxite production in the first 10 months of the year was 3.6% up on the same period of 2002, with an upswing in the tail: October output was up 4.9% year-on-year. The 10-month total is the result of a 5.4% increase in alumina production, set against a decline of 0.2% in that of crude bauxite. Development minister Paul Robertson has forecast for the year as a whole a 2.7% increase in crude bauxite and one of 4.6% in alumina, translating into earnings above US$760m.

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