The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has drawn attention to the spread of a coffee fungus – known as coffee leaf rust – through Central America, with potentially devastating consequences.
These are comparatively early days in the spread of the disease but both the ICO and independent analysts are outlining a worrisome impact. The ICO estimates that up to half a million agricultural workers have lost seasonal jobs as a result of the disease, and experts are predicting an increase in crime, deforestation and environmental imbalance, and even a new surge in illegal migration out of Central America northwards to Mexico and the US.
The disease is detected when an orange, dust-like fungus appears on the back of the coffee bush leaves. It sucks the sap from the bushes, which eventually wither and die.
In previous outbreaks, the rust has only been found in coffee bushes planted at 3,000 feet above sea level or lower – but now it seems to have spread much higher up the hills to 5,000 feet. Previously, it has been controlled through fungicides, but coffee growers say the current outbreak is much more aggressive and resistant to treatment. Bringing it under control could take longer than in the past.
It is now said to have affected 70% of Guatemala’s coffee bushes, 64% in Costa Rica, and lower proportions in Nicaragua and Honduras. According to the ICO, Central American coffee production fell by 17.1% in the October 2012 – March 2013 growing season, and is predicted to drop a further 30-40% in the next season, which will run from October 2013 to March 2014.
Despite this Central American crisis, international coffee production and prices have not yet been affected. This is because Central America accounts for only 12% of world coffee production. Central America Arabica beans are frequently used to blend flavours into coffee mixes that rely on Brazilian and African volume supplies of Robusta beans. “What are Folgers, Maxwell House, Kraft, General Foods, Starbucks, and Dunkin’ Donuts going to do? They’ll start mixing more Robusta in bags of Arabica”, said Gerardo Alberto De Leon, a marketing manager for a Guatemalan coffee growers cooperative known as Fedecocagua.
The ICO’s forecasts as far as the effects on agricultural employment are concerned are deeply worrying. The organisation suggests that out of a total Central American population of 41m people, up to 1m seasonal and permanent coffee workers are expected to lose their jobs in the next October-March season. Independent analysts suggests that each person employed in the coffee sector supports an average of up to five other people.
| Extent of the outbreak for 2012-13 crop year | |||||
| Country | Farmland affected (ha) | Job losses | Value lost (US$m) | 60kg bags lost this season | bags exported last season |
| Costa Rica | 60,000 | 14,000 |
$14m | 73,600 | 1.38m |
| El Salvador | 112,293 | 13,444 | $74.2m | 322,102 | 1.06m |
| Guatemala | 193,200 | 75,000 | $101m | 554,394 | 3.72m |
| Honduras | 70,000 | 100,000 | $230m | 1.3m | 5.47m |
| Nicaragua | 46,853 | 32,000 | $60m | 306,667 | 1.68m |
| Source: International Coffee Organization | |||||
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