Former president Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010) could win the presidential elections on 17 November in the first round, crushing her main opponent, Evelyn Matthei, in the process, according to a poll released on 29 October. Bachelet has long been the overwhelming favourite for victory but it had still been widely assumed she would have to go to a second round run-off to secure it. The first televised debate featuring all of the presidential candidates took place hours after the release of the poll.
Bachelet is on course to win 47% of the vote to just 14% for Matthei, according to a survey released by the prestigious Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP). But the CEP reckoned she would take 60% of the vote to 17% for Matthei if blank and void ballots were removed and undecided voters split. Matthei was closely followed in the poll sample of 1,437 voters by the right-wing independent Franco Parisi, on 10%, and left-winger Marco Enríquez-Ominami on 7%.
All of the candidates concentrated their firepower on Bachelet during the presidential debate, but she seemed unperturbed. The huge lead she has carved out in the polls means she could afford a slip anyway. The CEP survey also showed that several of her flagship policies in the election manifesto she finally got around to releasing this week have very strong public backing, especially education and tax reform. Bachelet said that she would send a bill to congress within 100 days to end for-profit education and provide free higher education for all within six years by means of “permanent spending” of between 1.5% and 2% of GDP. She said this, in turn, would be funded by a proposed tax reform, consistent with the mantra “those who have more, pay more”. She said the tax take would increase by US$8.2bn, some 3% of GDP; 2.5% from reforms such as putting the corporate tax rate up from 20% to 25%, and 0.5% from combating tax evasion and avoidance.
Matthei took aim at Bachelet for leaving it until just 21 days before the elections to present her manifesto, although Bachelet did release a shortlist of intentions (an agenda for her first 100 days in office) earlier this month. In a swipe at Matthei, Bachelet said that “this way of doing things, a participative programme, not one negotiated between four walls or between friends, takes time”.
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