That Mexico should figure prominently in the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA)’s public summary of its drug threat assessment is not surprising. What does catch the eye is the fact that it foresees increases in the supply of all the drugs that Mexico produces, and a possible continuing decline in only one – cocaine - for which Mexico acts only as a conduit.
The DEA’s 2013 National Drug Threat Assessment Summary (NDTAS) was made public on 18 November. As a 28-page summary it is somewhat short on the statistical underpinning of its conclusions. It is also cautious when it comes to explaining the causes of perceived trends; in most cases it prefaces the identification of causes and correlations with ‘likely’, ‘may’ and ‘appear to’ — but it swings over to certainty when it comes to predicting future developments. What follows is a synopsis under our own headings (using edited excerpts from the text) of what the NDTAS says.
Heroin
Facts cited: According to National Seizure System (NSS) data, the amount of heroin seized at the Southwest Border increased by 232% from 2008 (558.8 kilos) to 2012 (1,855kg).
Conclusion: Heroin availability in the US continued to increase in 2012.
Conjectures: The increase in seizures appears to correspond with increasing levels of production of Mexican heroin and the expansion of Mexican heroin traffickers into new US markets. The increase in availability is most likely due to an increase in Mexican heroin production and Mexican traffickers expanding into the eastern and midwestern US markets traditionally supplied with white heroin.
Outlook: The US wholesale heroin market will remain in flux for the near term as Mexican traffickers attempt to expand control over certain markets and gain entry to others. It is likely that Mexican traffickers will continue to expand into lucrative white heroin markets by increasing their own access to white heroin and, to a lesser extent, attempting to introduce Mexican brown and black tar heroin into eastern US heroin markets.
Methamphetamine
Facts cited: Prices decreased more than 70% between the third quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2012, while purity increased almost 130%. Seizures of Mexican methamphetamine coming across the Southwest Border have increased [presumably supported by NSS data]. Abuse and demand data indicate that methamphetamine abuse is stable [Presumably supported by data from the National Drug Threat Survey (NTDS)].
Conclusion: Availability of methamphetamine in the US may be increasing.
Conjectures: The increase may be due largely to sustained production of high-quality methamphetamine in Mexico, the primary foreign source for the US market.
Outlook: With the inflow of high-quality Mexico-produced methamphetamine, large-scale domestic production will continue to diminish; however, it will not disappear.
Marijuana
Facts cited: NTDS data show 88.2% of responding agencies reporting that marijuana availability was high in their jurisdictions. National-level data for 2011 show more individuals reporting having used marijuana in the past year than reported using all other drugs combined. According to the Potency Monitoring Project, the average percentage of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the constituent that gives marijuana its potency, increased by 37% from 2007 (8.7%) to 2011 (11.9%). There have been record levels of eradication, increased growing in previously uncultivated areas, and a considerable increase in large-scale cultivation by transnational criminal organisations (TCOs) and criminal groups, particularly involving Mexican traffickers [unsourced]. Marijuana smuggling into the US has been consistently high over the past 10 years, primarily across the US–Mexico border, where more than a million kilos of marijuana are seized annually [presumably supported by NSS data].
Conclusion: Marijuana availability in the US appears to be increasing.
Conjectures: The increase in marijuana availability may be due to increased domestic cannabis cultivation and sustained high levels of production in Mexico.
Outlook: TCOs and criminal groups will increasingly exploit the opportunities for marijuana cultivation and trafficking created in states that allow ‘medical marijuana’ grows and have legalised marijuana sales and possession. Marijuana abuse levels will increase over the next decade, particularly if its use continues to be increasingly accepted by adolescents.
Cocaine
Facts cited: According to NSS data, approximately 16,908 kilos of cocaine were seized at the Southwest Border in 2011; in 2012, only 7,143 kilos were seized, a decrease of 58%. Price and purity data also indicate decreased availability of cocaine [unsourced]. Available data on cultivation, yield, and trafficking indicate that cocaine production in Colombia declined in 2012 from the high levels seen in the period 2005 to 2007.
Conclusion: The trend of lower cocaine availability in various areas of the US that began in 2007 continued in 2012.
Conjectures: Counterdrug efforts may be sufficiently disrupting Colombian traffickers’ ability to increase cocaine transportation; the combined effect of several large seizures and the arrests of several high-level traffickers makes TCOs reluctant to transport large shipments of cocaine. Conflict between and within TCOs in Mexico may affect the amount of cocaine moved, as groups scale back their smuggling efforts until disputes abate.
Outlook: Trends in Colombian cocaine production — the primary source for cocaine distribution in the US — will continue to affect US cocaine availability in the near term. Law enforcement efforts in source and transit countries as well as the US, combined with a decrease in domestic demand, will contribute to reduced availability, a situation which is unlikely to change in the immediate future.
- Mexico identifies cartel ‘corridors’
On 6 June Mexico’s national security council, CNS, said that a programme launched last July had led to the identification of four main corridors leading into the US which are used by organised crime and the drug cartels:
▫ Sonora-Arizona
▫ Chihuahua-New Mexico-West Texas
▫ Coahuila-Nuevo León-Tamaulipas- South Texas
▫ Baja California-California
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