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LatinNews Daily - 24 August 2015

Brazil: Itaú president warns against impeachment

Development: In an interview published on 23 August, Roberto Setubal, the president of Itaú Unibanco, the largest banking conglomerate in Brazil, warned against impeaching President Dilma Rousseff.

Significance: Setubal joins the list of notable Brazilian public figures who have positioned themselves against impeachment. The presidents of Bradesco, (another bank), Cosan, (an energy, logistics and infrastructure group) and the national confederation of industry have all spoken out against impeachment. While there remains considerable political pressure on President Rousseff, opposition leaders will be wary of alienating those sat atop the commanding heights of Brazil’s economy.

  • “In terms of corruption, there is no justification”, Setubal said. “By contrast, what we have seen is that Dilma has allowed a thorough investigation of this issue”. Addressing the separate issue of the “fiscal manoeuvres” which the government may have employed to justify higher spending in 2014, Setubal said, “they might merit punishment, but they are not a reason to remove a President. […] You can’t just remove a President from office because he or she is momentarily unpopular. You have to respect the rules of the game”.
  • An added element of uncertainty in the political arena comes from the attorney general’s decision to file corruption charges against Eduardo Cunha, the speaker of the federal chamber of deputies and the man with the sole responsibility for initiating impeachment proceedings against Rousseff. While the charges weaken Cunha, they may also anger him to the extent that he may wish to start impeachment proceedings before the supreme court decides whether he has a case to answer. Even if a motion to impeach Rousseff gets the two-thirds of votes it needs to pass the lower house, it is extremely unlikely that it would pass in the senate, but it would ensure that Brazil’s climate of political instability continues.

Looking Ahead: If corruption charges are filed against Renan Calheiros, the senate president, the prospects for the Rousseff administration could deteriorate fast. The tentative rapprochement between Rousseff and Calheiros is another bulwark against impeachment.

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