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LatinNews Daily - 16 September 2015

Run-off confirmed in Guatemala

Development: On 15 September Guatemala’s electoral authorities (TSE) announced the final results from the 6 September general elections.

Significance: The TSE confirmed that the 25 October second round presidential run-off will be between Jimmy Morales of the small conservative Frente de Convergencia Nacional (FCN-Nación) and former First Lady, Sandra Torres (2008-2012), of the centre-left Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE). The result that had been widely anticipated, following the surprise decision by Manuel Baldizón, of the main opposition Libertad Democrática Renovada (Líder), to pull out of the race the previous day. With the second-round line-up confirmed, both candidates are now desperately seeking alliances ahead of 25 October.

  • The final results gave Morales 23.99% of the valid vote (1.152m in total); Torres, 19.75% (948,809 in total) and Baldizón, 19.38% (930,905) – meaning that there was just 17904 votes between the first and second placed candidates. Fourth with 6.53% (313,628 votes) was Alejandro Giammattei (Fuerza), a former head of the prison service under the Gran Alianza Nacional (Gana) administration led by former president Oscar Berger (2004-2008). In fifth place with 5.97% (286,730 votes) was Zury Ríos Sosa, the daughter of former dictator Efrain Ríos Montt (1982-1983), who was standing for Visión con Valores (Viva). Lizardo Sosa (Todos) took 5.41% (259,673); while controversial journalist, Mario David García, of the ruling Partido Patriota (PP) took 214,532 votes or ( 4.47%). The PP has been badly damaged by the various government corruption scandals, which ultimately forced the resignations of Otto Pérez Molina and Roxana Baldetti as president and vice-president respectively. Eight other parties made up the remainder.
  • The TSE also announced elections would be restaged in 11 municipalities (out of the country’s 338) as a result of the burning of ballot boxes and other irregularities.
  • While Baldizón has said that he will not endorse either presidential candidate in the second round, his support base (the rural poor) is likely to migrate to Torres, who made her name under the UNE government led by her former husband and president, Alvaro Colom (2008-2012), when she headed up the government’s poverty reduction schemes. Meanwhile Morales – whose party has strong links to the military – has his support base is in urban areas and is likely to attract the vote of the hard Right like the Viva and the PP.

Looking Ahead: Given that public outrage over corruption marked the first round electoral campaign period, Morales and Torres are now likely to come under closer scrutiny. Yesterday a court ordered the arrest of Baldizón’s former running mate, Édgar Barquín, a former head of the central bank (2010-2014), in line with a request filed in July by the United Nations-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (Cicig) and the attorney general’s office in relation to alleged money laundering.

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