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Security & Strategic Review - January 2016 (ISSN 1741-4202)

BRAZIL: Zika overtakes terrorism in list of Olympic concerns

Until recently, security concerns in the run-up to the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro were dominated by fears that the historically high levels of violence in the city would impact upon the 2016 Games. Added to this were the usual fears that the event might make an inviting target for terrorist organisations, despite Brazil’s lack of obvious enemies. But these major concerns have been swept aside in recent weeks following the panic over the spread of the Zika virus, linked to a surge in cases of microcephaly, a kind of infant brain damage, in Brazil.

Personnel

Around 85,000 security personnel will be deployed across the country during the event (including in the cities outside of Rio that will be hosting part of the football competition and the procession of the Olympic torch), with 38,000 soldiers from the ministry of defence, and a further 47,599 from the National Public Security Force (FNSP), comprising 18,500 officers from the military police (PM); 1,822 from the civil police (PC); 4,620 from the fire brigade and civil defence force; 2,000 from the federal highway police; 1,734 from the department of correctional facilities; 5,810 from the municipal guard; and 9,613 from the National Security Force (FNS). All of these personnel will be under the command of Colonel Nazareno Marcineiro, former head of the military police in the southern state of Santa Catarina.

Other senior figures responsible for the delivery of a safe Olympics include Andrei Rodrigues, the special secretary for major events (which comes under the control of the ministry of justice); General Luiz Felipe Linhares, the special advisor for major events; and José Mariano Beltrame, the security secretary for the state of Rio de Janeiro. A former federal police officer, Rodrigues led the security detail during President Dilma Rousseff’s 2010 presidential election campaign. Linhares is a career army officer. Beltrame, another former federal police officer, is one of the architects of the pacification programme in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. Though the programme is not without its critics, Beltrame is widely considered a thoughtful and effective administrator.

Sergio Moura da Cunha, director of the Brazilian intelligence agency, Abin; Luiz Fernando Corrêa, the head of security for the Rio 2016 Organizing Committee; and Colonel Wanius Amorim, from the fire brigade and civil defence unit, will also play a key role in the preparations over the coming months.

In terms of the cost of the security procedures, Rodrigues said that the federal government would spend R$1.170bn (US$300m), to be added to R$350m (US$88m) to be spent by the Rio 2016 Organizing Committee. While levels of crime in the city remain high, the latest statistics by the Institute for Public Security (ISP), a state-run agency, show significant reductions in homicides, street muggings, and car theft in Rio de Janeiro (see related article). Security officials also note the relatively successful delivery of the World Cup which, minor incidents aside, was relatively crime free.

Police cooperation

While some experts attribute the fall in crime to the policy of pacification, others argue that a financial incentive system whereby the military police and the civil police are encouraged to work together has proved the most effective strategy. Historically, the two organisations have often functioned as rivals, with the street police of the PM rarely preserving crime scenes or helping out the investigators of the PC.

Now police units can earn bonuses from the federal government of between R$4,500 (US$1,100) and R$13,500 (US$3,400) per police officer per semester for hitting productivity targets. Roberto da Sá, the under-secretary of planning and operational integration for Rio de Janeiro’s security secretariat, said that the federal government’s support had been fitting given the major events coming up in the city. These bonuses, however, are being reviewed in the light of the current financial crisis facing the state.

Terrorism

The Olympics have a history as a terrorist target. Eleven members of the Israeli delegation and a West German policeman were killed by a Palestinian terrorist organisation in the 1972 Munich Games. One person died and another suffered a fatal heart attack after an anti-abortion activist bombed the Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta in 1992. The explosion wounded over 100 others.

One of the new features for the Olympics will be the creation of the Integrated Centre for Combatting Terrorism (CIET), a joint venture between the ministries of justice, defence and the Abin intelligence agency. This will be the first time Brazil has had an organisation specifically dedicated to the task of tackling terrorism. At a press conference in August last year, Moura said that there had been no indication as yet of planned terrorist activity. “Brazil, traditionally, is not a target for terrorist acts. But this event will provide a huge platform and we must be on the alert,” he said.

But there are concerns that the Brazilian authorities are complacent as regards the terrorist threat. The country’s huge, porous borders; the ease of access to weaponry; and the historically poor coordination between the different security forces of the state, lead some to conclude that an attack would not be overly difficult. According to Fernando Brancoli, a specialist in security at the Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil is underprepared. “The country does not have the ability to track [people] internationally or to know whether money is coming here to finance attacks,” he said. “You have to rely on those who do know.”

On 25 November, President Dilma Rousseff signed into law a decree waiving the necessity for certain countries’ citizens to apply for a visa for a 90-day stay in the country over the period of the Olympics. Ostensibly, this appears designed to make the country a more attractive destination for sports fans from the United States, who at the moment have to contend with a complicated, slow visa-process that mirrors its own. While a visa-waiver also went into effect during the 2014 World Cup, it was dependent on the possession of tickets to matches. For 2016 tourists will not need Olympics tickets to benefit from the waiver. It is yet to be determined which countries will benefit from the waiver programme.

With the decree signed in the wake of the latest wave of terrorist attacks in Paris, critics argued that the visa-waiver programme could endanger security at the Games. One European diplomat, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said, “Brazil is sticking its head in the sand” in terms of security.

Zika

At present, all of these other concerns have been overtaken by the outbreak of the Zika virus. First identified in Brazil in May 2015, the mosquito-borne disease is asymptomatic in four out of five cases, and where it is expressed, it often appears to be only a mild form of dengue, with rashes, joint pain and a low fever. It has, however, been linked to a rise in the number of cases of microcephaly. As such the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has already advised pregnant women to consider postponing their trips to areas where Zika is present. European health agencies have done the same. Over the next few months of Brazil’s hot, wet summer, prime mosquito breeding season, the number of incidences are likely to rise.

So far, the state of Rio de Janeiro has registered almost 4,000 cases of dengue in the first few weeks on 2016, but as the disease appears so similar to Zika, and testing remains complicated and inefficient, authorities are worried cases of Zika could rise. As such, more resources are being dedicated to mosquito eradication programmes. In 2012, Rio de Janeiro successfully reduced a dengue epidemic with a public education and eradication programme and the hope is that this year will prove equally successful. Olympic organisers, meanwhile, state that a specialist team will clear all venues of possible breeding sites in the run-up and during the Games. The Rio 2016 Committee also points out that the event is being held in August, winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when mosquito numbers are likely to be low.

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