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Weekly Report - 14 October 2010 (WR-10-41)

TRACKING TRENDS

DUTCH ANTILLES | Dissolution. On 10 October, the former Dutch colonies of Curaçao (pop. 192,000) and Sint Maarten (pop. 37,000) became autonomous countries within the Kingdom of the Netherlands, signalling the dissolution of the 56-year old five-island Dutch Antilles territory. Having voted in favour of autonomy in two referenda (held in Curaçao in 2009 and Sint Maarten in 2010), the two islands join Aruba which seceded from the Dutch Antilles in 1986. The other three islands, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba instead became autonomous special municipalities of the Netherlands, returning them to direct rule from The Hague.
Under the new arrangement, Curaçao and Sint Maarten will have more power of government and use of their own taxes, while both islands are to establish and share a single supreme court and a central bank. The Dutch government however will remain responsible for defence and foreign policy and have initial oversight over Curaçao finances under a debt relief deal.

HONDURAS | IMF loan. The IMF executive board has formally approved a US$202m loan for Honduras, US$6m more than the initial amount agreed mid September and the first since the coup d'état last June. Comprising two IMF credit lines, the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Standby Credit Facility (SCF), the 18-month loan is intended to “restore economic stability, strengthen public finances, rebuild investor confidence and support economic recovery," according to the IMF.
The loan is a boost for President Porfirio Lobo, who inherited an economy in dire straits. The IMF said Lobo's economic programme “seeks to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen public finances, and protect the external position". The Fund highlights as key to these aims the April 2010 tax reform [WR-10-13] which should boost the tax take from L$43.2bn (US$2.28bn) to L$63.1bn (US$3.34bn) in 2011. A second bill is currently in congress which aims to raise a further US$2.6m through clamping down on tax evasion. This is in line with the government's aim of cutting the public sector deficit to 3.7% of GDP in 2010 (down from 6.2% in 2009) and 3.1% of GDP in 2011.

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