Germán Vargas Lleras, Colombia’s former vice-president (2014-2017) and the main leader of the Cambio Radical (CR) political party, has announced that rather than seek the presidency in next year’s general election on a CR ticket, he will try and register as an independent candidate. Vargas Lleras is one of the leading presidential hopefuls and his unexpected announcement has sparked speculation that it answers to an attempt to break all ties with the Unidad Nacional centre-right ruling coalition and the incumbent government led by President Juan Manuel Santos to run on a more right-wing electoral platform. The big question is whether Vargas Lleras’ gambit will pay off and lead him to the Casa de Nariño or whether it will end up costing him the presidency.
Vargas Lleras, who stepped down from the vice-presidency in March in order to bid for the presidency in May 2018, was widely expected to stand for the CR and try to win the support of other parties that make up Unidad Nacional. However, on 28 August Vargas Lleras informed the CR party leadership that he would not seek the party’s presidential nomination, having decided to collect signatures to stand as an independent candidate instead. Hours after Vargas Lleras’ decision became public, a group of local business leaders and artists led by Eduardo Pacheco, the CEO of the Grupo Colpatria conglomerate, announced plans to register a new political organisation called ‘Mejor Vargas Lleras’ (‘Better Vargas Lleras’) with the electoral authorities (Registraduría) to promote and collect signatures in favour of Vargas Lleras’ candidacy.
The following day, on 29 August, Pacheco filed an application to register Mejor Vargas Lleras at the Registraduría offices in Bogotá as announced. Speaking to journalists afterwards, Pacheco said that in his view and that of many of his fellow business leaders, Vargas Lleras represents the best option to stop Colombia from turning into Venezuela. “Vargas Lleras is the best antidote we have against those lefties in this country that want to implant in Colombia Venezuela’s regime”, Pacheco said without referring to any specific political party or presidential candidate. In the wake of the ongoing peace process with the country’s guerrillas left-wing parties have become more optimistic about their political prospects next year.
Pointedly, Pacheco also alluded to Vargas Lleras’ criticisms of the peace deal that the Santos government signed with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrillas last year, which many in Colombia feel offers far too many concessions to the Farc. “We have to forgive the Farc but not forget. We can’t forget what they have done and what they want to do,” Pacheco said in reference to the Farc’s bid to from a new political party to contest the general election.
Moments after Pacheco spoke outside the Registraduría’s offices, Vargas Lleras, who has been touring the country since March as part of his pre-electoral campaign, released a video message on social media in which he publicly explained his decision to seek an independent candidacy. Vargas Lleras said that he decided to run as an independent so as to be able to reach out to sectors of the electorate beyond those affiliated to political parties. He added that he had also been swayed into his decision after being “asked by a large number of Colombians across the country, in their majority young entrepreneurs” so that he could attract support from those that may sympathise with him but are not closely identified with CR or Unidad Nacional. Indeed, Vargas Lleras thanked the leaders of the Mejor Vargas Lleras movement and said that he would now work together with them to secure the necessary 386,000 signatures (or 3% of the valid total number of votes cast in the previous general election) to register his candidacy.
Vargas Lleras said that this would involve “campaigning on the streets” to secure the support of the Colombian people rather than just politicians. Yet the issue for Vargas Lleras is that he is not the only established presidential hopeful that has opted to run as an independent as part of a bid to distance themselves from the country’s discredited traditional parties (see sidebar). Vargas Lleras clearly feels that he can count on the support of the CR and perhaps even many political leaders within the Unidad Nacional coalition but does not want to be tainted by the ruling coalition’s political legacy dating back to 2010, when Santos first came to power, including the various corruption scandals that are now affecting it.
Vargas Lleras may also be keen to avoid being constrained by the demands that political parties often impose on presidential candidates in exchange for their support. This has led local analysts to speculate that Vargas Lleras, who as vice-president fully backed the peace process pursued by the Santos administration despite voicing disagreement with some of its aspects, will now harden his stance against this.
In particular, it is expected that, as Pacheco hinted, Vargas Lleras may reject some aspects of the peace deal signed with the Farc. Such a move could earn Vargas Lleras more support on the Right among those who have abandoned Unidad Nacional and increasingly turned to the right-wing opposition Centro Democrático (CD) party led by Santos’ predecessor, Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010). However, this may alienate those voters that continue to support the peace process and the accord signed with the Farc, whose support could migrate to one of the other presidential hopefuls that have pledged to uphold the peace deal if elected – such as the government’s former chief peace negotiator with the Farc and fellow former vice-president Humberto de la Calle (1994-1997), who may now seek to secure Unidad Nacional’s presidential nomination. In order to remain as a presidential contender, Vargas Lleras is going to have to run a well-balanced campaign that does not alienate more support than it attracts.
- Independent candidacies
Following Germán Vargas Lleras’ announcement that he will seek to register as an independent presidential candidate, there are now 26 politicians that have declared that they will try to register as independents. Among these are the former defence minster, Juan Carlos Pinzón (2011-2015); the former prosecutor general, Alejandro Ordóñez (2009-2016); the former senator, Piedad Córdoba (2006-2010); the former mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo Petro (2014-2015); the former labour minister, Clara López Obregón (2016-May 2017); the former governor of Antioquia department, Sergio Fajardo (2012-2016); and Senator Claudia López Hernández. While Pinzón and Ordóñez are closely identified with the Right; Córdoba, Petro, and López Obregón are closely identified with the Left. Meanwhile Fajardo and López Hernández are considered to represent the political centre.