Development: On 12 February, El Salvador’s Justice & Public Security Minister Mauricio Ramírez Landaverde said that, so far, no particular criminal group had been identified as being responsible for a car bomb that went off the previous day in Santa Tecla municipality, La Libertad department. However, he added that, with less than a month until the 4 March elections for the 84-member national unicameral legislature and all 262 mayoral seats in 14 departments, electoral motives could not be ruled out.
Significance: The incident is likely to reignite existing concerns about links between organised crime and politicians ahead of the elections, which pre-electoral polls suggest are likely to produce a defeat for the left-wing ruling Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN) government led by President Salvador Sánchez Cerén. The government has been damaged by its perceived failure to address long-running issues like security and the economy.
- According to the local press, the abandoned car contained two “artisanal” explosives, one of which was activated by metropolitan police (CAM) officers as they opened the doors, injuring two. Ramírez alluded to the possibility that gangs could be behind the bomb, drawing a parallel with cases dating back to 2014 and 2015 when vehicles with explosives were found in front of ministries. Those incidents were blamed on street gangs.
- Concerns regarding possible links between organised crime and politicians have intensified since last August when Carlos Eduardo ‘Nalo’ Burgos Nuila, a former gang leader, said that the FMLN had paid US$250,000 to three gang members in exchange for votes during the 2014 presidential election campaign while the right-wing opposition Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena) party had paid out US$100,000 with the same aim.
- The possibility of electoral violence is likely to fuel voter concerns about the more general security situation which, another poll released last month by the public opinion institute at the Universidad Centroamericana (IUDOP), showed remained the primary concern - cited as such by 54.8% of respondents. This is hardly a surprise given El Salvador’s continued parlous security record, with 60 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants registered in 2017. While down from 81 per 100,000 in 2016, the murder rate is still the highest in Central America and one of the highest in the world.
- The other chief concern is the economy (cited by 9.8%) – again hardly a surprise given the latest (December 2017) figures from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (Eclac) which forecast just 2.4% GDP growth for El Salvador in 2017 – the lowest in Central America where the average is 3.3%.
- The latest pre-electoral surveys suggest that the FMLN government’s failure to address these concerns is likely to translate into defeat in the upcoming election. The latest poll, released on 8 February by the San Salvador-based private university Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG), showed that 17.4% of respondents would vote for Arena in the legislative election and 11.9% for the FMLN. In the last (March 2015) national legislative elections, Arena took 35 seats (up from 33 in 2012), to 31 for the FMLN (unchanging).
- The FMLN has also been badly damaged by its decision to expel San Salvador mayor Nayib Bukele, the country’s most popular politician, from its ranks last year for infringing party rules. With Bukele now positioning himself as a presidential candidate ahead of next year’s vote for his new political outfit, Nuevas Ideas, the IUDOP poll tellingly showed the impact of his departure on the FMLN, with 74.4% of respondents considering that the ruling party will lose votes in the upcoming election.
- As regards Bukele’s successor for the San Salvador seat – the country’s second most important political post - the IUDOP survey revealed lack of knowledge regarding the two main parties’ candidates: national deputies Ernesto Muyshondt (Arena) and Jackeline Rivera (FMLN). The IUDOP poll showed that 83.8% of respondents did not know who the FMLN San Salvador mayoral candidate was, a figure which drops to 82.6% for Arena. Meanwhile the UFG poll showed 16% would vote for Muyshondt while 15.5% said that they would vote for Rivera.
Looking Ahead: The pre-electoral surveys reveal a disillusioned electorate, prompting concerns about abstention. The UFG poll showed that 33.2% of respondents said that they would not vote in the legislative election. Meanwhile the IUDOP poll showed that 59.9% of respondents had little or no interest in voting in the next elections while the political parties were the least trusted of the country’s institutions, registering just 3% trust.