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Security & Strategic Review - August 2003

'Lifesaving' drive diverts migrant flow elsewhere

The 'balloon effect' familiar to observers of the drugs trade is also at work in the flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico to the US. A huge effort to avoid deaths in the crossings west of Tucson has led to increases elsewhere. 

The US Border Patrol reports that so far this fiscal year there have been 110 known deaths of illegal immigrants in the Tucson sector; 30 in southeastern Arizona (absolute totals are hard to estimate, as bodies can lie undetected for a long time in deserted border areas). This appears to be the direct consequence of a big bilateral effort to reduce the risks of crossing under the guidance of unscrupulous polleros (people smugglers). 

Millions of dollars have been spent (the US Department of Homeland Security won't say how much, citing security reasons) on the redeployment of the Border Patrol to one of the highest-risk border areas, the desert lying west of Tucson. This has involved posting more agents there, conducting more air patrols, planting rescue beacons and setting up camps next to the most-used routes. 

This has been complemented by an intense media campaign, with grim television and radio spots and posters highlighting the dangers posed by the unscrupulous polleros, the harsh climate and the desert's many poisonous animals. These appeals are running continuously in the main target cities ? Agua Prieta, Altar, Cananea, Nogales ? and also in the main source states of Mexican emigration - Chiapas, Guanajuato, Michoacán. The advertising campaign also has a US component, directed towards the resident families of would-be Mexican migrants. 

As in other stretches of the border in the past, the intensification of Border Patrol presence in one area leads the migrants to choose less guarded points of passage, frequently in harsher environments. In this case, the concentration of efforts intended to be lifesaving in the area west of Tucson has been correlated with an increase in fatalities in southeastern Arizona.

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