Development: On 4 July, an Associated Press report citing anonymous sources claimed that on several occasions last year US President Donald Trump met then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster to discuss the possibility of a military intervention in Venezuela.
Significance: Although President Trump has openly stated – in August 2017, for example – that he would be willing to use military force to resolve the situation in Venezuela, the report of this meeting is the first suggestion that there have been real intentions behind the rhetoric. The report claims that McMaster eventually succeeded in persuading Trump that invasion would be a dangerous approach.
- Tillerson and McMaster are said to have met Trump in August 2017, the day before he announced a “possible military option” for Venezuela, and to have been stunned when Trump asked why the US could not intervene to remove Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro on the grounds that his administration represented a threat to the stability of the region. Trump is also said to have mentioned the possibility to Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos, and to representatives of certain Latin American states at a private dinner at the meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2017.
- In response to this report, Diosdado Cabello, the president of the constituent assembly (ANC), announced that on 5 July he would ask the body’s delegates to open an investigation into the “traitors” who openly called for the invasion of Venezuela. According to Cabello, Trump’s interest in opposing Venezuela militarily stemmed from appeals by Venezuelan exiles to overthrow the current government.
- Cabello also reasserted his opposition to opening a channel for the entry of humanitarian agencies supplying aid – chiefly food and medicines – claiming that this would be a pretext for the arrival of military forces.
- In a mark of the ongoing tension between the two countries, US Vice President Mike Pence, during a recent tour of Latin America, described Venezuela’s government as a brutal dictatorship and blamed it for the destruction of the country’s economy and the mass exodus of millions of Venezuelans. In response, Maduro described Pence as “a venomous snake”, adding that every statement made by Pence was motivation to continue on the same policy path.
- Meanwhile, on 3 July, Rocío San Miguel, the president of the NGO Control Ciudadano, claimed that the ‘affirmation of loyalty’ that Maduro introduced on 24 May this year has now become an integral part of ascension up the military ranks. Candidates for promotion are told to sign the affirmation, and if they refuse they lose the right to progress. Maduro is the first head of state in Venezuelan history to demand an oath of personal loyalty, prompting criticism that he is compromising the professionalism of the body out of his deep-rooted concern that it might turn against him.
- Speaking at an armed forces promotion ceremony on 4 July, Maduro encouraged those present to remain vigilant in their role as defenders of Venezuela. In addition to the defence of the country’s territory, he asserted that the role of the armed forces is to protect the country’s political stability – another reference, perhaps, to Maduro’s fears of a brewing military coup.
Looking Ahead: Although the reports are only emerging now, these conversations took place several months ago – indeed, Tillerson and McMaster are no longer involved in the Trump administration. What it offers most of all, then, is a rhetorical boost for President Maduro, something that will no doubt be very welcome as he seeks to shore up his draining support.