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Weekly Report - 8 July 2003

Outcome of Mexican elections boost the prospects of Lopez Obrador

Two very different outcomes have emerged from Mexico's midterm legislative elections. In what matters to the 'market-shapers' focused on pending economic reforms, the results mean that the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) will not be able to achieve anything without heavy horsetrading with a strengthened Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). As regards the country's longer-term political future, it has increased the chances that Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of the leftist Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), might be the next President. 

Early counts suggest that the PAN has seen its representation in the lower chamber of congress fall to somewhere between 148 and 158 seats (out of 500), while that of the PRI has risen to 222-227 -leaving it 
placed to muster a working majority in conjunction with one of the smaller parties.

PRI leader Roberto Madrazo greeted the results with a reiteration of his pre-election call for a broad consensus (WR-03-23), attaching to it an invitation to create 'a broader and more participatory democracy' -a clear message to President Vicente Fox that the time has come to sit down and negotiate.

The most remarkable result, though, is the growth of the PRD's representation, from 55 seats to somewhere between 93 and 100.

This is likely to do wonders for the presidential prospects of López Obrador, the highly successful mayor of Mexico city who is already shown in opinion surveys as the favourite 
presidenciable for the elections due in 2006. The PRD won an overwhelming majority of the congressional seats for Mexico city.

The PRI, which attracted about 34% of all the votes cast, showed that it remains strong -indeed has strengthened its position- across the country. This will be seen by PRI strategists as their greatest advantage, since neither of its rivals have a similar countrywide reach.

Particular encouragement was derived from having wrested control of the state of Nuevo León from the PAN (more than offsetting the loss to the PAN of the small central state of San Luis Potosí­). The PRI was ahead in four of the six states where gubernatorial elections were held on Sunday.

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