On 20 February, Bolivia’s electoral tribunal (TSE) approved the presidential candidacy of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) nominee Luis Arce, but disqualified former president Evo Morales (2006-2019) from running to become a senator.
Analysis:
Morales’ disqualification was celebrated by opponents of the MAS, who had fought to remove him from power in November 2019, and were concerned that a return to the legislature would provide him with immunity against the numerous charges of terrorism and sedition subsequently issued against him by the interim government. While Morales drew the headlines, the approval of Arce’s presidential candidacy is more politically significant, and while he joined the ranks of MAS officials condemning Morales’ exclusion, his own electoral campaign may ultimately benefit from an opportunity to distance himself from the controversial former president.
- TSE president Salvador Romero confirmed that Morales was disqualified for failing to meet residency requirements, after he claimed refugee status in Argentina in December 2019. Two other senate candidates, MAS former foreign minister Diego Pary (2018-2019) and Creemos nominee Mario Cossío, were blocked on similar grounds. Arce had also escaped Bolivia in November, but apparently evaded disqualification because he did not claim refugee status in Mexico, and so was not formally resident there.
- Romero insisted that the decision was final, but Morales’ lawyers have already discussed issuing an appeal to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), arguing that the disqualification of electoral candidates on the basis of having claimed political protection is a violation of international refugee law.
- Morales called the decision “a blow to democracy”, accusing the interim government of seeking to undermine the MAS. Arce described the verdict as “a political decision”, and claimed this constituted further evidence “that there are no guarantees for free democratic and fair elections in Bolivia”. He called for MAS supporters to respond by rallying around his presidential campaign.
- A number of Arce’s rivals praised Morales’ exclusion, but were quick to emphasise that their task was not yet complete. Luis Fernando Camacho, who withdrew his candidacy on 18 February in pursuit of a united front behind a single anti-MAS candidate, insisted that “the threat remains”, adding that “we can’t get distracted or lower our arms”. Carlos Mesa, Arce’s closest challenger in a recent poll, called his rival “a proxy for President Morales”.
- The perceived threat of Morales – whose popularity declined after he defied a 2016 referendum that voted against him being allowed to run for a fourth term – is the main electoral weapon available to the opponents of the MAS, a loose grouping united largely by its opposition to him as an individual. With Morales apparently out of the picture, the outcome of the election may well depend on whether they can maintain similar unity against Arce, and convince the population that Morales is still pulling the strings within the MAS.
Looking Ahead: Arce is not yet entirely out of the woods himself, as he still faces allegations of corruption from his time as economy minister (2006-2019), which may yet be used to undermine his electoral campaign.
