On 10 August Trinidad & Tobago’s Prime Minister Keith Rowley claimed victory for the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) in a general election which took place the same day.
Analysis:
With official results yet to be declared in the twin-island republic, Rowley proclaimed victory after citing initial results which gave the PNM 22 of the 41 seats in the House of Representatives, to 19 for the opposition United National Congress (UNC) led by former prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar (2010-2015). Despite a challenging economic scenario, even before the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and a worsening security situation, the government’s handling of the pandemic, which has received international plaudits, no doubt served as a boost. The UNC, however, has sent mixed messages as to whether it accepts the results, suggesting these could be challenged.
- The PNM, which appeals mostly to Trinidad & Tobago’s African-descended population (approximately 36% of the total, with 38% of East Indian descent, and 24% mixed), came to power in September 2015 following a 23-18 seat victory over the UNC.
- One contentious aspect of the 2020 election was the absence of international electoral observers due to the pandemic. According to a government statement, Rowley invited the Caribbean Community (Caricom) and the Commonwealth to send observers, but as part of sanitary protocols, entrants to Trinidad & Tobago were required to quarantine for 14 days – a condition which Caricom and the Commonwealth rejected citing financial constraints.
- Rowley’s apparent success comes despite an unpromising economic outlook even before the pandemic, due to lower oil prices. The country’s economy may have recovered from the 6.3% contraction it suffered in 2016 on World Bank figures, but only to the extent that there was flat growth in 2019, after a further contraction of 2.3% in 2017 and 0.2% in 2018. The latest forecast by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (Eclac) is for -7.1% growth in 2020.
- The government also failed to deliver on its promises to address crime. Official figures cited by the US Department of State’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) tally 539 murders in 2019, up from 517 in 2018, 495 in 2017, 462 in 2016, and 420 in 2015.
- However, the PNM government has received widespread praise for its handling of the pandemic, moving swiftly to adopt containment measures, such as border closures, travel restrictions, school and university closures, and limits on social gatherings, which has boosted its approval rating. As of yesterday the country had just 281 confirmed Covid-19 cases and eight fatalities. The government began implementing a six-phase reopening plan from 10 May, although borders and schools remain closed.
- Examples of international praise for the government’s response include a 10 April statement by the European Union Delegation commending the government for “the measured manner in which it has been proactively managing the challenges posed”. An overview published in May by Oxford University’s Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) of which countries meet four of the World Health Organization’s six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures ranked Trinidad & Tobago first in the world for this. The latest (June) OxCGRT survey places Trinidad & Tobago ninth – still the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Looking Ahead: According to the local media, the UNC conceded defeat at the party’s election headquarters last night. However, Persad-Bissessar is calling for a recount in three marginal constituencies, telling her supporters that “I am not giving any concessionary speech. I am not conceding”, and insisting that only once these are done “can we concede or claim victory”.