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Security & Strategic Review June 2010 (ISSN 1741-4202)

REGION: Coca growing continues to shift back south

The 'balloon effect' is continuing to shift the cultivation of coca back from Colombia to Peru and Bolivia, in response to the former's success in winning the race between eradication and new cultivation over the past six years. In Peru, the increase is taking place in new areas, far from where the government is fighting the Sendero Luminoso guerrillas and conducting a fairly steady, albeit low-level, eradication drive. Overall, cultivation is up on the average for 2003-08, and eradication is down. UN experts admit that the crucial factor, in the 'war on drugs', of potential production makes their calculations more uncertain.

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