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Gabriela Siller, the head of economic and financial analysis at Banco Base, a Mexican private bank, has warned that 2021 could be a record year in terms of capital outflows for Mexico due to risk aversion (uncertainty over the 6 June midterm federal legislative and state elections) and inflation expectations. Siller warnings come after foreign investors sold off M$106bn (US$5.3bn) of Mexican state securities in the first quarter of 2021 – the second highest amount recorded for a first quarter. As regards inflation, current projections by economists expect inflation to close 2021 at 4.11%, above the central bank (Banxico) target of 3% (with a tolerance range of 1 percentage point above or below).
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