On 1 June Haiti’s Episcopal Conference (CEH) issued a statement warning that now is "not the moment” to hold a referendum on a new constitution which is scheduled for 27 June.
Analysis:
The CEH statement adds to mounting pressure on President Jovenel Moïse to suspend plans to hold the referendum ahead of the general election, the first round of which is scheduled for 19 September. As well as being deeply contentious and sparking repeated protests by the political opposition, which already maintains that Moïse’s presidential term ended in February, the proposed referendum has lost the support of the international community, leaving Moïse looking increasingly isolated. Further upping the pressure on Moïse to abandon the proposal is the current health emergency stemming from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic: the government yesterday was forced to announce an extension to a state of emergency announced last month in response to a surge in cases.
- In its statement the CEH highlights that there have been “many voices” calling for changes to the constitution or a new constitution but urges the need for a “correct and agreed” way of achieving this. Listing insecurity, gang violence, political instability, and now the pandemic, the CEH warns that the conditions are not currently in place for staging a referendum. It adds that the decision to replace the constitution should not be made in a “full political crisis” with no consensus yet reached regarding a way out.
- Indicative of waning international support for the referendum, on 18 May US Acting Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Julie Chung said that the decision to hold a referendum “further adds to the controversy, especially without an inclusive and credible consultative process that fully incorporates civil society”. Chung noted that these reservations had been expressed by “likeminded international partners” such as the United Nations (UN) Integrated Office in Haiti (Binuh) as well as in a 26 April statement by the Core Group that groups the ambassadors to Haiti from Germany, Brazil, Canada, Spain, the US, France, the European Union, the Special Representative of the Organisation of American States and the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General.
- Further casting doubt on the plans to hold the referendum, yesterday Moïse confirmed a 15-day extension to the eight-day state of emergency which he decreed initially to begin on 24 May to stop the spread of the virus. Among other things this imposed a nightly curfew banning all outdoor activity from 10pm until 5am; made the use of face masks mandatory for anyone out in public; and ordered public and private institutions to reduce staff on duty by 50%.
- His latest decision followed a record 220 new daily infections reported on 28 May on the latest available health ministry (MSPP) data, bringing the total to 14,931 cases and 321 fatalities. There are currently 2,292 people hospitalised, prompting MSPP director general, Lauré Adrien, to warn that the health system is at risk of collapse - concerns further exacerbated by the government’s hitherto failure to begin a vaccine roll-out.
Looking Ahead: While the international community has come out against the referendum, it continues to push for a general election as a way out of the political crisis. On 26 May the OAS announced it would deploy a five-member mission to Haiti “no later than mid June” to facilitate a dialogue that would lead to “free and fair elections”. However, Moïse has previously conditioned the elections on the referendum taking place, casting further doubt on the future of the electoral process.