Not for the first time Peru’s President Pedro Castillo’s attempt to regain the initiative by announcing a major reform proposal has been completely overshadowed by political developments. On 6 October Castillo replaced his prime minister, Guido Bellido, and six cabinet ministers. Replacing Bellido, an unreconstructed Marxist under investigation for alleged ‘apology for terrorism’, with a predilection for misogynistic and confrontational remarks, with a moderate leftist feminist lawyer and advocate of gender equality, Mirtha Vásquez, looked like a statement of intent. Judging by the fierce criticism of Perú Libre (PL), the far-left party that brought Castillo to power, it has interpreted the move as an attempt by the head of state to cut himself loose from its Marxist-Leninist leader Vladimir Cerrón. This will play well to the opposition-controlled congress, but it will not suddenly begin supporting Castillo, and estranged relations with PL could leave him isolated and struggling to advance a legislative agenda.
President Castillo presented what he described as nothing less than “a second agrarian reform”, alongside Bellido, in the ruins of the Incan fortress of Sacsayhuamán overlooking Cusco, the capital of one of the regions where he won most votes in the recent elections, to thousands of indigenous and rural farmers on 3 October. The choice of date was no coincidence. For it was on 3 October 1968 that General Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968-1973) came to power in a military coup d’état against Fernando Belaúnde Terry (1963-1968).
Castillo focused exclusively on the ‘first agrarian reform’ for which Alvarado is famous, describing it as “a process of structural change rooted in a long fight by the people” which sought to end the exploitation of rural peasants by large landowners. But marking the date of the overthrow of a democratically elected president in this way was consistent with the mixed message for which his government is becoming renowned, raising questions about his commitment to democracy.
“I want to make it very clear that this second agrarian reform is not seeking to expropriate land or strip property rights from anybody,” Castillo said, saying that it would put the government “at the service” of farmers “relegated for decades, government after government”. Castillo provided some details. He promised to create an agrarian and rural development cabinet, over which he would preside, comprising “productive ministries”, and with the active participation of regional and local governments.
Castillo vowed to make some “adjustments” to the price range of some agricultural goods to protect national production from imported products; to build a fertiliser plant; to construct markets in every region of the country; to establish an agrarian development bank; to improve rural infrastructure and connectivity; and to create an ‘agrarian civil service’ programme through which “thousands of young university students” would provide technical support for farmers.
Bellido followed up on the meeting by declaring that if congress failed to approve the second agrarian reform “we will return each and every deputy to face their people”. Legislators from half a dozen parties in congress responded by calling for the government to produce a bill for them to debate before issuing threats. “We have a prime minister whose first course of action is to take out his gun and put it on the table,” Hernando Guerra García, the spokesman for the right-wing opposition Fuerza Popular (FP), said. Guerra then fired a threat of his own: “If he hasn’t understood what democracy and separation of powers is, we will have to make him understand. We have no problem in censuring the prime minister if it is necessary”.
This latest example of Bellido’s hectoring manner followed his threat to serve congress with a vote of confidence if it dared to censure the labour minister, Íber Maraví, who was grilled by legislators on 30 September over alleged links to the militant Maoist guerrilla group Sendero Luminoso (SL). It also came after an incendiary tweet Bellido sent threatening to nationalise the Camisea gas deposits unless the consortium exploiting them renegotiated its contract with the government [WR-21-39].
The fact that Castillo did not move to slap down Bellido, merely issuing tweets couched in much more conciliatory language, gave the impression to onlookers, including investors, that this could be part of a good cop, bad cop routine, with Cerrón, through Bellido, ultimately calling the shots. That Castillo appointed the likes of Bellido and Maraví in the first place upon taking office on 28 July, when it was widely assumed he would need to appoint a moderate left-winger in the interest of forging a more consensual government, suggested that either Cerrón was an éminence grise or Castillo was not half as moderate as he maintained.
But, on 6 October, Castillo suddenly delivered a short, televised address announcing that he had decided to take “some decisions in the interest of governability”, and that it was “time to put Peru above all ideology and isolated party positions”. Bellido, he said, would be departing. Castillo later confirmed that Vásquez would replace him. Maraví, meanwhile, facing imminent censure by congress, was replaced by Betssy Chávez Chino, a PL deputy who represents the more moderate face of the party.
- Motion of censure
President Castillo had held on to Íber Maraví as labour minister when his alleged links to SL came to light. His decision to replace Maraví came after it became apparent that he would be censured by congress. Opposition parties had gathered at least 75 votes in favour of his censure (only 66 votes are necessary). His replacement, Betssy Chávez Chino, a PL deputy, is a lawyer with experience in criminal investigation and fighting against corruption and drug-trafficking, and an expert in constitutional law. During her election campaign, she stressed that combating corruption would be her main priority.
How did it come to this?
Two developments on 1 October seem to have pushed Castillo towards taking the decision to remove Bellido, who he had stuck by despite the fierce opposition of congress, the negative reaction of the markets, the mounting evidence of SL sympathies, and his confrontational rhetoric.
The first was the release by the recently created Epicentro TV of a series of leaked ‘chats’ of the PL congressional bench ‘group’ on WhatsApp, a social networking app. Bellido and Cerrón also formed part of the ‘group’. Within these chats, Bellido openly conspired to bring down moderate members of the cabinet. He called, for instance, for the foreign minister Oscar Maúrtua and his deputy, Luis Enrique Chávez, to resign immediately over comments on Venezuela [WR-21-38]. The moderate justice minister, Aníbal Torres, and economy and finance minister, Pedro Francke, also came in for heavy criticism, and Castillo’s own decisions were questioned.
Not only did these leaked comments suggest a total lack of harmony within the cabinet but they also undercut Castillo’s authority. The first vice-president of congress, Lady Camones, responded on Twitter by saying that Bellido’s position was “untenable” after the publication of the chats. “Do we need further evidence to realise that it is not President Pedro Castillo who is governing?” she asked rhetorically.
The second development was the presentation to Castillo of a document dated 1 October signed by the head of the judiciary, Elvia Barrios; the attorney general, Zoraida Avalos; the president of the national judicial council (JNJ), Inés Tello; the comptroller general, Nelson Shack; and the public ombudsman, Walter Gutiérrez. The signatories appealed to Castillo to call “an urgent session” of the council of state due to what they described as “the growing political instability that is affecting the smooth functioning of public administration”.
What does it mean?
By removing Bellido and Maraví, Castillo appears to be asserting his authority. He also lent credence to his moderate discourse by taking action consistent with his words. Unlike Bellido, Vásquez, a member of the moderate left-wing Frente Amplio (FA), has experience of working with congress, having served as president of congress under interim president Francisco Sagasti (2020-2021). After being sworn-in, Vásquez said that she would lead a cabinet that “seeks to promote dialogue, governance, and teamwork”, a thinly veiled criticism of Bellido. She added that “our great objective is to fight for the most vulnerable and we are going to achieve it”.
The problem for Castillo is that he was not just beholden to the PL, which brought him to power, but he is also reliant on the party for support in a hostile and fragmented congress, where it is by far the largest party with 37 of the 130 seats. The moderate left only controls five seats.
The right-wing and centrist parties, which between them hold the bulk of the seats in congress, will be delighted to see the back of Bellido and breathe a collective sigh of relief at his replacement; the president of congress, María del Carmen Alva, welcomed the end of “unnecessary uncertainty”. But while they are likely to grant her cabinet the requisite vote of confidence in the coming weeks and will be much more open to working with her than Bellido in the future, they continue to have misgivings about Castillo, and they are not suddenly going to start supporting his administration unless it suits them. It is also worth noting that FP, in particular, was previously highly critical of Vásquez, an outspoken critic of corruption in politics.
The PL, meanwhile, could potentially head into open opposition. PL deputy Silvana Robles took to Twitter to accuse Castillo of having “opted for political suicide”. She said: “The far-right imposed its agenda, but there is no negotiating with unpatriotic coupsters…Coupmongering won and Peru lost.” She added: “The fascist far-right lost the elections but today it has won a cowardly government”. The spokesman for PL, Waldemar Cerrón, the brother of Vladimir Cerrón, responded to the removal of Bellido by saying that the PL bench “does not support this cabinet because we consider it to be a betrayal of all the majorities who have waited for so long to come to power to be heard”.
Castillo’s decision will herald a big change in style of governance. But there is still a significant lack of clarity about his political plans and priorities, and uncertainty about how much more effective his government can be with scant congressional support.
While Castillo has not tacked to the right, contrary to the PL’s assertions, there are some parallels between the predicament he could now find himself in and that of Ecuador’s former president Lenín Moreno (2017-2021) after he broke with the radical left that supported his predecessor Rafael Correa (2007-2017), which went on to provide the fiercest opposition to his government in the national assembly. Centrist and right-wing parties in Ecuador’s legislature, while they openly reviled Correísmo, only worked with Moreno when it was convenient for them or to their advantage.
New cabinet
The new cabinet more closely resembles what politicians and commentators alike expected to see after President Castillo took office on 28 July. In addition to the appointment of Mirtha Vásquez as prime minister, for instance, Roger Incio Sánchez, who worked at the private investment promotion agency (Proinversión), comes in as production minister, and businessman Eduardo Gonzáles as energy and mines minister. Not all of the appointments are moderate, however, with a radical teachers’ union leader, Carlos Gallardo, taking over as education minister, and a lawyer for the PL, Luis Roberto Barranzuela Vite, taking over as the interior minister.