In his first comments after the chamber of deputies voted to impeach him, Chile’s President Sebastián Piñera said on 10 November that the case against him was based on “false facts” and would be thrown out by the senate.
Analysis:
President Piñera said the accusations against him, based on the leaked ‘Pandora Papers’ and purporting to show he had a conflict of interests in the sale of family-held shares in a mining company to a close friend, had “no basis, neither in fact nor in law”. Piñera was also highly critical of the 22-hour debate on the impeachment vote in the chamber of deputies, which include an extended filibuster to allow a key deputy to emerge from obligatory coronavirus (Covid-19) isolation and cast the determining in-person vote in favour of impeachment.
- The senate is expected to begin the impeachment debate on 16 November, only five days before the general election, which is due on 21 November. Since the opposition parties lack the necessary two-thirds majority, it is expected that impeachment will eventually fail in the upper chamber
- Even if ultimately unsuccessful, impeachment may affect the presidential race. Far-right candidate José Antonio Kast, who is currently leading in the opinion polls, described the lower chamber vote as a “circus” while left-winger Gabriel Boric, welcomed it as “good”.
- Marco Moreno at Universidad Central said it allowed centre-left opposition parties to send out “a powerful signal of unity” which might be of key importance in a likely second-round run-off ballot in December (potentially Kast vs Boric), as well helping it build a working majority in the next elected congress.
- Miguel Angel Fernández, political scientist at Universidad del Desarrollo, said there has been a close link between the Piñera government’s approval rating and support for Sebastián Sichel, the right-wing presidential candidate supported by the ruling coalition. He concluded that the impeachment process is likely to have a negative impact on Sichel’s polling numbers, which have already weakened by a recent surge in support for Kast.
Looking Ahead: The latest batch of opinion polls show Kast consolidating his first-round lead. A poll by Activa published on 6 November showed Kast with 22% support, followed by 18% for Boric, 11% for Democracia Cristiana’s Yasna Provoste, and 8% for Sebastián Sichel.