On 22 November the first opinion polls for the 19 December presidential second round run-off were published, which showed far-right candidate José Antonio Kast and left-winger Gabriel Boric in a technical tie.
Analysis:
A Cadem opinion poll conducted between 16-19 November showed Kast (who won the 21 November first round by 27.9% to 25.8%) and Boric each with 39% support. Another poll, by Pulso Ciudadano (conducted 9-12 November) also showed a virtual tie, with 35.9% for Boric and 35% for Kast.
- The prospect of a Kast victory lifted sentiment in financial markets, with the Santiago stock exchange up by 9.7%, its largest single day jump in 13 years. The peso strengthened against the US dollar.
- To win the run-off the two candidates must both secure the endorsement of the first-round candidates and attract those who didn’t vote.
- Over 40% of the first-round vote was cast for candidates who failed to make it thought to the second round, principally liberal economist Franco Parisi (who came third), centre-right Sebastián Sichel (fourth) and centre-left coalition leader Yasna Provoste (fifth). Turnout was 55%.
- Parisi has said that his Partido de la Gente (PDG) will launch an online consultation of its members over who PDG should endorse. In the 2013 election no formal endorsement was made but PDG voters ended up favouring the conservative candidate. The Pulso Ciudadano poll suggests this time PDG members will split narrowly (28%-27%) in favour of Boric.
- In some initial and ambiguous comments, Provoste fell short of endorsing Boric, but the Partido Socialista (PS), a member of her coalition, did not hesitate to do so, saying the priority was to block the threat posed by the extreme right.
- Sichel was already on record saying he would not endorse Boric, with members of his coalition therefore leaving the door open to formally endorsing Kast.
- In a bid to reassure centrist voters Boric said that his political ally, the Partido Comunista (PCCh) mayor of Recoleta (Santiago province), Daniel Jadue, would not be offered a position in his government.
Looking Ahead: Ahead of the run-off, the two candidates will try and secure endorsements as quickly as possible. Perhaps trying to maximise his leverage, Parisi has said his proposed ‘digital consultation’ will be held in the first half of December, very close to polling day.