Moderate left-wing and moderate right-wing candidates performed extremely poorly in the first round of Chile’s presidential elections on 21 November. In sharp contrast, however, they did rather well in the concurrent congressional elections. This could be a key factor in shaping Chile’s political future.
Chilean elections have been seen as a watershed moment, confirming deep shifts in political alignments after the social explosion of 2019, the constitutional referendum of 2020, and the election of a constitutional convention in May 2021. At presidential level, the ‘old Chile’ – the three-decade track record of alternation between relatively moderate centre-left and centre-right coalitions, has been dealt something of a death blow.
There were seven candidates in the running for the presidency. The two who could be said to represent the old Chile - Sebastián Sichel of Chile Podemos Más, who was aligned with the incumbent right-wing coalition of President Sebastián Piñera, and Yasna Provoste of Nuevo Pacto Social, a coalition including Democracia Cristiana (DC) and Partido Socialista (PS) - were relegated to fourth and fifth place in the race. Sichel received only 12.79% of the popular vote, placing him fourth, while Provoste gained 11.61% for fifth place. Beneath them came Marco Enríquez Ominami (a former member of the PS now representing the Partido Progresista [PRO]) in sixth place with 7.61%, and Eduardo Artés (a far-left candidate of the Unión Patriótica (UPA), who came last with 1.47%.
For obvious reasons attention has focused on the top three candidates, all of whom could be described as representatives of the ‘new Chile’, which remains somewhat volatile and still in a state of turbulent evolution. José Antonio Kast of Partido Republicano (PLR) took first place with 27.91% of the vote. A far-right admirer of former US president Donald Trump, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, and Chile’s military dictator, General Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), Kast is a supporter of free-market economics and a social conservative who appeals to those worried over crime and violence and immigration (in an echo of Trump’s border wall, Kast proposes digging a ditch on the northern border with Bolivia to make it more difficult for migrants to enter Chile).
Second place went to Gabriel Boric of the Apruebo Dignidad leftist coalition. Boric won 25.83% of the vote, putting him just over two percentage points behind Kast. Boric can be described as a child of the 2019 social explosion – the wave of often violent protests over poverty and inequality that swept the country. A former student leader, Boric favours a much more interventionist state. At 35, he is one of Chile’s youngest-ever presidential candidates, offering a “generational shift”. He describes himself as an ecologist, a feminist, and a regionalist. He has claimed that Chile was the first country to introduce the neo-liberal economic model but will also be the first country to “bury it”. He admires the Podemos movement in Spain and former left-wing Uruguayan president José Mujica (2010-2015).
While the second-round run-off, due on 19 December, will be a two-way race between Kast and Boric, it is also worth noting the unexpected strength of Franco Parisi of Partido de la Gente (PDG), who took third place with 12.8% of the vote. His campaign was unusual in many senses. It was conducted almost entirely on social media. Parisi remained outside Chile at his home in the southern US state of Alabama for the entire campaign. A libertarian economist who constantly attacks the political “caste system”, his anti-establishment populism has been likened to Italy’s Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo.
While voters seem to have opted for the ‘new politics’ at presidential level, they have not done so at the congressional level. The traditional centre-right and centre-left coalitions, Nuevo Pacto Social and Chile Podemos Más, were the two most voted-for coalitions in both the lower chamber and the senate. In the lower chamber, Chile Podemos Más will hold 53 of the 155 seats; Nuevo Pacto Social, 37. The lower chamber will be fairly evenly divided on right-left lines, with a narrow advantage to the left. In the 50-seat senate, Chile Podemos Más is projected to have the largest block of 24 seats while Nuevo Pacto Social will have the second largest with 17. Here too the balance between left and right will be close, with an advantage to the right.
The two big questions are who will win the run-off, and what type of relationship will the victor have with congress. According to early opinion polls, both second-round candidates are in a technical tie: a poll published by Cadem on 22 November showed them level-pegging with 39% support each, while a poll by Pulso Ciudadano showed Boric with a narrow advantage of 35.9%-35%. The outcome will depend on endorsements from the defeated candidates and on whether the high abstention rate in the first round (only 47.3% of the registered electorate voted) varies in the second round.
Both the ‘old left’ and ‘old right’ have, as expected, endorsed their new-left and new-right equivalents, Boric and Kast, for the second round. But the volatile PDG may still play a king-making role. Parisi has said he will hold an online consultation among party members in early December to decide who to endorse, arguing that this will be decisive in the final outcome. Parisi may be overstating his case, but in a close race both the Boric and Kast campaign leaders will do what they can to woo his supporters.
One reading of the current political situation is that both presidential frontrunners will need to tack to the centre in an attempt to win over floating voters, but also to ensure future governability. Whoever wins is also likely to have to moderate their policies if they hope to get new laws approved by a legislature where no single group will exercise control. Negotiations within the main congressional blocks may end up influencing the policies of the future government almost as much as the campaign manifestos of Boric and Kast.
A final point concerns the constituent convention. Elected last May, the 155-seat convention, which sits in parallel with congress, has until March next year to agree a new constitution, with the possibility of a three-month extension. The new constitutional text would then be subject to ratification by referendum, possibly in September 2022. It has a strong representation of left-wing and independent groups. If Boric wins the second-round ballot, he is likely to have a significant degree of empathy with the constitutional changes suggested. If Kast wins, the relationship is likely to be much more difficult. Kast has expressed support for the existing 1980 constitution written during the military dictatorship and has argued against a wholesale re-write.
Parisi
Franco Parisi is also controversial in other ways. He claims to be an academic at the University of Alabama, but the university authorities say he has not worked there since 2016; he also faces allegations of sexual harassment and failing to pay alimony. He denies any wrongdoing. Some analysts believe he appeals strongly to alienated young men.