Óscar Iván Zuluaga won the nomination of the ruling right-wing Centro Democrático (CD) for the May 2022 presidential election on 22 November, becoming the first candidate to secure a major party’s backing officially. As the designated torchbearer for Uribismo, the right-wing political movement created by former president and CD founder Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), Zuluaga can be expected to push a hardline security narrative and present a business-friendly alternative to the left-wing Senator Gustavo Petro (Colombia Humana), who leads opinion polls.
Zuluaga benefits from strong name-recognition, having reached the run-off of the 2014 election against former president Juan Manuel Santos (2010-2018) and served as finance minister under Uribe from 2007-2010. Despite that, he has no easy feat ahead of him. CD’s image has taken a battering in recent months, after President Iván Duque oversaw a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters between April and July [WR-21-19]. The protests focused attention on Colombia’s longstanding inequalities, which were further exacerbated by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, leading to a surge in support for Petro – who made it to the presidential run-off in 2018 before losing to Duque.
With the election still six months away, Petro is in pole position. A poll by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC), published on 13 November, put him on 22% of the intended vote, with Zuluaga scoring just 3%. Zuluaga can expect to scoop up many of the 4% of respondents who supported his main rival for the CD nomination, María Fernanda Cabal. His chances of success, however, largely hang on his ability to win over the 26% of respondents who said that they do not support any of the candidates or would cast spoiled ballots.
To achieve that, Zuluaga can be expected to push the law-and-order rhetoric of the current administration aggressively, highlighting victories such as the October capture of Colombia’s most-wanted drug trafficker, Dairo Antonio Úsuga (‘Otoniel’), as proof of the CD’s security credentials [WR-21-43]. Accepting the party’s nomination on 22 November, Zuluaga pledged to deliver “Democratic Security 2.0” in reference to Uribe’s flagship security policy, which saw the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) beaten into near-submission, but which also featured widespread and systematic human rights violations [WR-21-31]. Zuluaga has regularly criticised the 2016 peace agreement struck with the Farc, although he has said he will respect the peace deal if he wins the presidency.
Another certain line of attack will be Zuluaga’s presentation of himself as a bulwark against the radical leftist proposals set out by Petro. This worked effectively for Duque in the 2018 run-off, in which Petro was painted as the “Castro-Chavista” candidate bent on turning Colombia into a socialist state. It is unclear whether this will work quite so well in 2022, however, given the hardships experienced by much of the population during the pandemic. Nevertheless, Zuluaga’s emphasis on strict adherence to Colombia’s debt anchor may well resonate in a country in which leftist parties have traditionally been viewed with suspicion – particularly if he ends up facing Petro in the run-off.
For now, the challenge will be getting that far. The CNC poll put Zuluaga narrowly behind the independent right-wing, anti-corruption candidate Rodolfo Hernández, centre-left candidates Sergio Fajardo (Compromiso Ciudadano) and Juan Manuel Galán (Nuevo Liberalismo), and the independent centrist Alejandro Gaviria.
Farc set to be removed from US terror blacklist
The Farc appears set to be removed from the US State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organisations. Media outlets broke the story on 22 November, citing sources within the US government, and State Department spokesman Ned Price appeared to confirm the news on 23 November, stating that “the Department of State has provided congress with notifications of upcoming actions we are taking with regard to” the Farc. Many advocates of the 2016 peace deal struck with the guerrilla group argue that the Farc’s designation as a terrorist organisation is impeding the re-integration of ex-combatants into civilian life by hindering their opening of bank accounts and preventing them from benefitting from US-sponsored aid initiatives.