The Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) held primaries on 21 November to choose its candidate for Brazil’s October 2022 presidential elections. The decision to hold primaries – the first time that the establishment centre-right party would internally elect its presidential candidate – was taken in the hope of overcoming the PSDB’s internal divisions and refreshing its image after a few years of being pushed to the national political sidelines. Instead, the inconclusive and chaotic primaries further eroded the party’s credibility, giving a boost to the challenge being mounted by would-be presidential contender Sergio Moro, also to the right-of-centre.
The PSDB held the presidency for two terms under Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2003) before being relegated to the position of main opposition party during the leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) governments of Lula da Silva (2003-2011) and Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016). Its political clout slipped, however, following Rousseff’s impeachment, the negative impacts of the ‘Lava Jato’ corruption investigation, and incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power. The PSDB suffered a crushing defeat in the 2018 general election, with its presidential candidate, Geraldo Alckmin, finishing in fourth place while failing to muster even 5% of the vote. The party also lost seats in the federal congress.
With the October 2022 general election now approaching, the PSDB has been intent on reversing its fortunes. It is currently one of several parties that are jostling for space in the centre/centre-right amid the search for a moderate ‘third way’ candidate who could mount a credible challenge to both Lula and Bolsonaro next year [WR-21-37]. The performance of the PSDB’s presidential nominee in early polls will be key to determining how much weight the party carries in negotiations over a possible consensus ‘third way’ candidate in the coming months.
But the party is plagued by deep divisions. Although it has largely been independent from the Bolsonaro administration in the federal legislature, and formally declared itself to be in opposition in September this year, following Bolsonaro’s increasingly authoritarian discourse, a number of its representatives align with ‘bolsonarismo’.
During the primaries last week, a PSDB federal deputy, Mara Rocha, was caught on camera shouting that she will be leaving the party to support Bolsonaro next year. Elected lawmakers cannot easily change parties outside of a designated pre-electoral window.
The primaries were supposed to help paper over internal divisions by encouraging party members to throw their weight behind a democratically chosen candidate. Three names were on the ballot: João Doria, the state governor of São Paulo; Eduardo Leite, the governor for the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul; and Arthur Virgílio, a former senator and former mayor of Manaus, the state capital of Amazonas.
The primaries were expected to be an open race between Doria and Leite; both have been endorsed by important sectors of the party and have waged a bitter campaign in recent weeks. Doria, a former television presenter who came to politics relatively late, has never made any secret of his presidential ambitions; Leite, 36, entered municipal politics in his twenties and has only recently risen to national prominence within the party. Both endorsed Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential runoff, with Doria in particular riding the now-president’s coattails to victory, but both are now seeking to distance themselves from the unpopular president.
The PSDB’s general state of confusion ended up being reflected during its primaries on 21 November. Only elected representatives – such as governors, mayors, and federal lawmakers – and current and former party leaders were permitted to vote in person, at a conference centre rented out in Brasília for the occasion; the bulk of the PSDB’s 45,000-odd affiliates were supposed to vote via an app. However, technical issues meant the majority were unable to cast their vote – by the end of the day, fewer than 10% of those registered to vote had done so, including party heavyweights such as former president Cardoso. Members who were going to vote online but were authorised to vote in person turned up at the centre in Brasília, causing confusion and the risk that some may have voted twice.
Amid recriminations from the different candidates’ teams and disagreements on how best to proceed, the PSDB leadership was obliged to suspend the primaries. At the time of writing, they were planning on concluding them on 28 November, and were in the process of testing alternative apps to avoid a repeat of last week’s confusion. But the damage has been done: what was supposed to be an innovative and unifying exercise in party democracy ended up being a shambolic display of incompetence.
The sense is that this misstep strengthens the position of Sergio Moro. Moro, a former judge who rose to fame for his work on ‘Lava Jato’ cases before serving as Bolsonaro’s justice minister (2019-2020), recently affiliated himself with Podemos (PODE), a party on the right.
On 17 November, Moro told TV Globo that he “feels ready” to lead a political project for PODE next year. He revealed that he has been seeking economic advice from Affonso Celso Pastore, who was central bank president in the final years of the military dictatorship (1983-1985).
In recent days, Moro has publicly remarked upon a number of developments concerning his potential presidential rivals, including comments by Lula on Nicaragua’s elections and the Bolsonaro government’s new social programme named Auxílio Brasil.
Although he trails both Lula and Bolsonaro in the polls, Moro is positioned third, well ahead of any other prospective ‘third way’ candidate. A survey by Paraná Pesquisas, released on 22 November, gives Moro around 11% of voting intentions in two separate first round scenarios (which include either Doria or Leite as potential candidates), behind Bolsonaro on around 29% and Lula on about 35%.
Moro’s disadvantages include his high rejection levels, his past association with Bolsonaro, and his lack of a political persona. But these could be overcome if he squeezes out other candidates in the centre and consolidates his current position as the strongest ‘third way’ option.
Alckmin and Lula?
In a sign of just how volatile Brazilian politics are at present, there is speculation that Geraldo Alckmin of the PSDB could be the running mate of Lula of the PT next year. Once from rival parties (although Alckmin is in the process of leaving the PSDB), both men have given signs of being prepared to consign their differences to the past.
Alckmin
A doctor by training with a long political career, and whose insipid personality led him to be nicknamed a ‘picolé de chuchu’ (an ice lolly of the flavour of an aqueous and largely tasteless vegetable) in the 2018 election, Geraldo Alckmin would be a moderating figure in a Lula campaign and help appeal to the financial markets.
Bolsonaro and PL make up
President Bolsonaro’s planned affiliation with the Partido Liberal (PL) [WR-21-45] was put on hold last week amid rumours of disagreements between the president and the party leadership over how to dish out support at state level in next year’s elections. But these differences have now been resolved, and a ceremony marking Bolsonaro’s affiliation to the PL is due to be held on 30 November.
Lula vs Bolsonaro abroad
While centrist presidential pre-candidates have been seeking to make their mark in Brazil, the current frontrunners in next year’s election, arch-rivals Lula and Bolsonaro, were raising their profile abroad.
Lula, who has said that he will declare his candidacy in February or March next year, visited Germany, Belgium, France, and Spain last week on a trip that would have been fitting for a sitting head of state: he met Germany’s next chancellor, Olaf Scholz; was given a standing ovation in the European Parliament; was received with the honours befitting a state visit by France’s President Emmanuel Macron; and met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. In every country, he also delivered a withering critique of the Bolsonaro administration’s record and expounded upon the need to rebuild Brazil.
Bar an ill-judged comment to Spanish daily El País on Nicaragua’s authoritarian president Daniel Ortega, whom he refuses to condemn outright, Lula projected the image of an internationally well-regarded statesman, in stark contrast to the current Brazilian president.
Lula’s European tour contrasted with both Bolsonaro’s awkward and isolated experience at the G20 summit in Italy earlier in the month [WR-21-44] - and with the head of state’s simultaneous trip around the Persian Gulf last week. Accompanied by a large ministerial delegation, Bolsonaro visited the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, supposedly to drum up investment; but he came home with little to show for his trip.